Four months ago I called Green Bay the NFC Super Bowl
favorite. That has not
changed. Four months ago I called
the Jets the AFC Super Bowl favorite.
That has changed.
Finally, it seems that the NFC is the stronger
conference. The Packers, 49ers,
and Saints, who are quite clearly the class of the NFL, are joined by the
big-game Giants, upstart Lions, and always dangerous Atlanta Falcons. Meanwhile, the AFC is a smorgasbord of
inconsistent and injured “elite” teams paired with the Texans, Bengals, and
Broncos, who some might see as the worst trio of playoff teams ever. The only reason the Bengals and Broncos
are in is that every other AFC competitor also lost their regular season finales.
Wildcard Round
Cincinnati Bengals
(6) vs. Houston Texans (3)
Nobody would have believed that Cincinnati and Houston would
be facing off in the first round of the playoffs at this time 12 months
ago. Yet, here we are with
Cincinnati and Houston, two of the worst AFC teams since 2002. Carolina’s rookie quarterback, Cam
Newton, put up a lavish statistical spectacle this season but it is
Cincinnati’s second round draft pick, Andy Dalton, who gets my nod for rookie
of the year. He and fellow rookie,
A.J. Green, not only carried Cincinnati to the postseason but also propelled my
fantasy roster to the league title.
However, the Houston Texans, led by whatever quarterback is yet to join
the Walking Dead, have the defense
and running game in place to make a legitimate Super Bowl run. With the Jets yelling, cursing, eating,
and filming new Pepsi commercials back home, a new AFC team is ready to make an
unexpected postseason run. The two
teams have already faced each other this season in week 14. That game ended with a T.J. Yates
touchdown pass to win it for Houston with two seconds remaining. Expect similar results.
Houston 20, Cincinnati 17
 |
| (From left to right) Texans quarterbacks Matt Schaub, Matt Leinart, and T.J. Yates |
Pittsburgh Steelers (5) vs. Denver Broncos (4)
When was the last time a team in the midst of a three game
losing streak hosted a playoff game?
I don’t know, but it’s going to happen this Sunday. Tim Tebow has “led” the Denver Broncos
to the AFC West title. I need to
say that again. Tim Tebow has
“led” the Denver Broncos to the AFC West title. Meanwhile, Ben Roethlisberger, the toughest player in the
NFL, continues to nurse seemingly every bone is his body heading into the playoffs. As if matters could not get any worse
for Pittsburgh, they lost running back Rashard Mendenhall in their season
finale. Interestingly enough, I
don’t think Mendenhall’s injury should make much of a difference. The days of a run-first offense in Pittsburgh
are long gone and Mendenhall has been a glorified, average runner for most of
the season. I still think Pittsburgh
is the best team in the AFC. If
Roethlisberger plays (which he will), I just can’t see him allowing Tim Tebow
to knock him out of the playoffs. Tebow
and Roethlisberger are both great winners, but the superior and more
experienced team comes out on top.
Pittsburgh 38, Denver 13.
Detroit Lions (6)
vs. New Orleans Saints (3)
Old school footballers are going to have a coronary watching
two teams demonstrate just how insignificant defense or a running game is in
the modern NFL. Drew Brees and
Matthew Stafford combined for 10,514 passing yards and 87 touchdowns this
season. Those numbers are by far
the highest totals that the two starters in a postseason game have ever produced. I think rather than play a conventional
four, fifteen-minute quarter game, both teams should start with the ball at
their own 20 and get seven plays to score a touchdown. Oh wait, that’s what will happen
anyways. Since losing the biggest
head-scratcher of the season against the Rams in week 8, the Saints have
rattled off eight straight wins, including four over playoff teams (Detroit in
week 13). While some people might
argue that a high-scoring points machine like the Lions is the type of team
that can compete with the Saints, I believe that in order to conquer Drew
Brees, somebody not named the Packers is going to need to do it with power
running and aggressive defense.
The Lions do not offer this and are ranked 29th, 22nd, and 23rd in
rushing offense, pass defense, and run defense respectively.
New Orleans 45, Detroit 33.
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| Finally able to stay healthy for an entire season, Matt Stafford has proven he was worth the first overall selection |
Atlanta Falcons (5)
vs. New York Giants (4)
This should be the most competitive, back-and-forth game of
Wildcard Weekend. Both teams faced
a daunting regular season schedule.
The Giants somehow survived a four game losing streak, although you
can’t really blame them when it
occurred against San Francisco, Philadelphia, New Orleans, and Green Bay. As for Atlanta, after starting the
season 2-2, their four additional loses have all come against playoff
teams. I really like the matchups
Eli will be getting against Atlanta’s secondary, a unit that ranks 20th
in pass defense. Cruz and Nicks
have emerged as perhaps the best wide receiver duo in all of football. However, Atlanta has its own weapons in
Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez.
After going for over 100 yards just once through his first nine games,
Roddy White has since turned his season around and had four 100 yard days over
his last seven. He should easily
get to 150 yards against a Giants secondary whose love for injuries is only
surpassed by their love for allowing big plays. Injuries have also been an issue for the Giants at the
linebacker position and have hindered their ability to guard tight ends. They allow an average of 59 yards/game
to the big boys over the middle, the fifth most in the NFL. If Atlanta can get Michael Turner
going, who finished the year with his worst full-season yardage total since
coming to Atlanta, then it could be a long day for the Giants defensively. Ultimately though, this game will come
down to Eli Manning’s ability to make plays in the clutch against Matt Ryan’s
attempts to do the same thing. I’d
rather have Eli.
New York 34, Atlanta 31
Attempting to map out the entirety of the NFL postseason
doesn’t really work because of reseeding.
But, due to the possibility of creating an appearance of brilliance, I
will wrap up this column with my picks for the rest of the NFL postseason
(these will change once all my Wildcard weekend picks prove to be wrong).
Divisional Round
Pittsburgh Steelers
(5) vs. New England Patriots (1)
This largely depends on the health of Roethlisberger. If healthy, the Patriots secondary will
be under fire (as usual). The
back-to-back comebacks against inferior Miami and Buffalo are disconcerting. The winner of this game will be in the
AFC driver seat.
Pittsburgh 31, New England 28 (OT)
Houston Texans (3)
vs. Baltimore Ravens (2)
Overrated Baltimore will have their inconsistent and
too-quick-to-abandon-the-game-plan offense exposed against defensively gifted
Houston. A three seed defeating a
two seed usually isn’t overly surprising, but this will be the upset of the
postseason.
Houston 17, Baltimore 10
New York Giants (4)
vs. Green Bay Packers (1)
There is simply no way I can pick against the Packers. However, I believe this divisional game
will be their toughest assignment of the postseason.
Green Bay 31, New York 24
New Orleans Saints
(3) vs. San Francisco 49ers (2)
I’ve been underrating them all season, but I still cannot
fathom an Alex Smith led attack defeating the unparalleled Drew Brees. San Fran has a strong defense, but New
Orleans’ unit is opportunistic.
New Orleans 24, San Francisco 17
Championship Round
Pittsburgh Steelers
(5) vs. Houston Texans (3)
Now with a 12-3 postseason record, Ben Roethlisberger’s
experience will be the deciding factor against inexperienced Houston. Houston takes its second ranked rushing
attack against the number eight rushing defense of Pittsburgh. Troy Polamalu turns the game around
with an only-he-can-do-that game changing play as the Steelers avenge their
early season loss.
Pittsburgh 24, Houston 10
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| Over the last 5 years, it seems as though no defensive player has made as many game-changing plays as Troy Polamalu (such nice hair) |
New Orleans Saints
(3) vs. Green Bay Packers (1)
The last NFC game of the season will a rematch of the first
in which Green Bay dramatically defeated New Orleans 42-34 on opening
night. Since then, much has
changed throughout the NFL, but the Saints and Packers have remained at the
offensive zenith for almost all of it.
With nearly identical defensive strategy, comparable receiver talent,
and similar running attacks, the game will come down to whether or not Aaron
Rodgers deserved the MVP award over Drew Brees. He did.
Green Bay 43, New Orleans 35
Super Bowl
Pittsburgh Steelers
(5) vs. Green Bay Packers (1)
For the first time since the Bills and Cowboys did it during
the 1993-94 seasons, we will have a Super Bowl rematch from the previous
year. Both quarterbacks will have
opportunities, while still young in their careers, to undeniably enlist
themselves among the league’s all time greats – Rodgers wins back to back Super
Bowls and a league MVP, Roethlisberger gets his third ring and 5th
overall appearance. Extensively
breaking down the matchups at this point would be premature, but I see no
reason why we should get anything less than the entertaining game we watched in
2011. Like the Cowboys did over
the Bills, Green Bay will again triumph.
Green Bay 37, Pittsburgh 29
-AW
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