Last week, I told you why the Giants would win the Super
Bowl. Here’s why New England will
do it.
1. Vince Wilfork is
the quickest 323-pound man I have ever seen. I hate writing articles in which I regurgitate the fads that
are simultaneously circulating all of the sports airwaves, but in the case of
Wilfork, who’s coming off a game in which he left no debate as to who is the
league’s best defensive tackle, I must join the conversation. Were it not for Wilfork’s complete
domination of the Ravens offensive line this past Sunday, Patriot fans would be
asking themselves whether the style of their team is one that is fit to win a
Super Bowl. Yet, here we are on
the complete other side of that question.
In my discussion of the Giants, I made absolutely no mention
to their running game, which ranked dead last at the end of the regular
season. Granted, they were without
Bradshaw for much of the year, but even with him I don’t see the Giants
eclipsing the 85-yard mark on the ground against New England. Say what you will about the Patriot’s
porous defense, but they are actually respectable against the run. They ranked 17th in run
defense and that is due almost entirely to Wilfork’s ability to clog up the
lanes for runners.
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| No, that's not the planet Saturn. |
The interesting aspect of the Wilfork situation is that,
like any great player, teams need to choose how he will impact the game, rather
than try stop him all together.
Wilfork’s tenacious rejection of the run seems almost inevitable. How can someone possibly expect to
consistently get by a man that is the size of a grand piano but can also do all these things? However, one of
the most outcome-defining subplots will be the extent to which Wilfork can also
disrupt the passing game. Wilfork,
as he did last Sunday, loves to come barreling through a guard-center-guard
sandwich and throw the tree trunks that he calls his arms into the face of
opposing quarterbacks. This is the
aspect of Wilfork’s game that the Giants must devote all week to eliminating,
or at least reducing. The problem
is, they won’t be able to do it.
Eli Manning was under major pressure in the Giants’ game
with San Francisco. New York’s
offensive line has been somewhat unstable this season and it showed. The 49ers run a 3-4 defensive scheme
compared with New England, who incorporates both base defenses both but is
slowly becoming exclusively 4-3.
In a 3-4 scheme, the three defensive linemen are usually larger and use
their strength rather than quickness to pressure the quarterback and stuff the
run. Their approach is similar to
that of defensive tackles in a 4-3.
Eli was sacked six times against San Francisco and 3.5 of those came
from defensive tackles/interior linemen.
In other words, the guys that gave Eli the hardest time are the ones who
attacked similar same spots on the line and with the same methods as will Vince
Wilfork.
Outside blitzers and edge rushers like, for example, the
Giant’s Jason Pierre Paul, can be taken out of the game by having running backs
and tight ends give quick crack blocks that are designed to take the player of
his feet. A strategy like this
does not work against someone with the orbit-creating body mass of
Wilfork. This spells major trouble
for the G-Men. And as if the
situation could not get bleaker, we should not forget that Wilfork is the only
remaining player from the Super Bowl 42 defensive unit. He’s hungry and you don’t want to be in
Vince Wilfork’s way when he’s hungry.
2. Hernandez and
Gronkowski are old news by now, but it’s still impossible to stop them both. There really isn’t anything to be said
about the tight end duo that I have not already addressed within the last two
weeks. What New England is doing
right now with their tight ends is without precedent and, I contend, ahead of
the times. Gronkowski and
Hernandez are matchup nightmares alone, but together, they’re Freddy Krueger.
Baltimore did a pretty exceptional job defending the two
juggernauts in the championship game.
The tight ends combined for a mere 162 all-purpose yards. That number may seem large (and it is),
but consider how close Baltimore came to victory. It seems that the 150-combined yardage mark is the
borderline between victory and defeat.
Unfortunately for New York, they will fall on the over side
of it. Defending against the tight
end has been a struggle for much of the season. The Giants allowed on average nearly 60 yards, five catches,
and half a touchdown to the tight end per game. All of these numbers rank in the bottom ten league-wide. In the first meeting between the two
teams, Hernandez and Gronk produced 136 yards and two scores. The yardage total is relatively low,
but the Giants won’t be able to get by again if they allow multiple touchdowns
to the tight ends this time around.
We’ve also seen the Giants struggle against the tight end
recently. After allegedly spending
all week strategizing against Vernon Davis, the Giants allowed a huge 73-yard
touchdown catch to him within the game’s first few plays. Unlike San Francisco, New England will
not let up once they get a lead.
Allowing something like that to either Gronkowski or Hernandez in the
first quarter will be checkmate.
Gronkowski’s high ankle sprain might make him inactive or
significantly less effective. An
injured Gronkowski would certainly take away some of the pressure, but I’d be
very interested to see if Hernandez could take over the game on his own. I believe he can and, if he needs to, will.
3. Tom Brady is mad. We have seen this before. In the face of adversity, opponent
overconfidence, and pressure, Brady transforms from the composed, consistent,
quarterback into a raged, f-this-shit, nasty, ruthless killer. After a poor showing in the conference
championship round, you can be sure the Giants will have to deal with the
latter.
It’s impossible for a Super Bowl team to be undeserving of
reaching the big game and to say anything other than talent and coaching got
them there would be wrong. This
said, the 2011-2012 season has been an interesting one, especially in the
AFC. Peyton Manning’s injury
completely flipped the pre-existing order in his division, which in turn
altered the dynamic of the conference as a whole. When you add in the effects of the lockout, which certainly
disrupted the rhythm of previous AFC contenders (Chargers, Jets, Chiefs), the
Patriots must feel pretty fortunate that they are the ones to emerge from the
conference. Brady knows this.
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| I don't get why Brady's so great. Sure, sure has has 3 SB rings, 2 MVP awards, and countless record, but that doesn't really matter. I mean, he doesn't even have a supermodel wife or anything like that - oh, wait... |
Brady spoke earlier in the week about what the Super Bowl
means to him now as every season brings him closer to the end his prime. He said he never took the Super Bowl
for granted, but after being a part of tremendous success early in his career
and then enduring a somewhat lengthy period of underachievement, Super Bowl 46
will be different. He could very
well never get there again. This
is his opportunity to create a legitimate claim to being the greatest
quarterback of all time and an additional Super Bowl title later down the road
would all but cement it.
New England’s team is united in their claim that they are
approaching this Super Bowl no different than any other. They’re about as interested in the
whole media-created revenge-rematch idea as I am in the Jersey Shore sans
Vinny. Maybe it’s getting hyped up
too much, but you don’t need to be Sigmund Freud to know what we’re hearing
from New England’s camp and what the returning players are actually thinking
are not one in the same. Brady
wanted to see the Giants again. He
wants to put an end to the Djokovic over Nadal type of domination that the
Giants have had over New England as of late.
So what does all of this mean in terms of game play? The thing that makes angry Tom Brady so
great is the genuine joy he seems to get from exploiting the opposing defenses
biggest weaknesses.
To go back to a the tennis analogy, as I watched the
Australian Open semi-final Nadal vs. Federer match (I DVRed the 3:30 AM match
and successfully managed to avoid discovering who won until 6:00 PM Thursday
afternoon at which point I was able to complete the viewing myself), Patrick
McEnroe explained that one reason Djokovic continues to beat Nadal, whereas
Federer cannot, is that he has no problems with creating a somewhat one
dimensional approach to winning.
Nadal’s biggest weakness is his backhand while his forehand is among the
best ever. So, Djokovic plays the
ball to Nadal’s backhand side time and time again. However, perhaps because he is so brilliant and has such a
wide range of tennis strategies and talents, Federer mixes up where he puts the
ball even though he knows putting it
to Nadal’s backhand is the most effective way to go. Ultimately, this diverse approach has been ineffective and
helps to explain why Federer has struggled so mightily against Nadal.
Brady has the full-repertoire brilliance of Roger Federer
but also the unabashed this-is-your-weakness-and-that’s-all-I-care-about
strategy of Novak Djokovic. As I
write this, Brady is discovering all those weak points in the Giants. Being a quarterback, Brady should be
happy to know that pass defense is the Giants biggest weakness.
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| If the Giants want any chance, they will need Webster to be excellent. |
Cornerback Corey Webster is certainly the best player in New
York’s secondary, but, as is the case even with someone like Darrelle Revis,
opposing teams don’t really know what to do with their top coverage guy against
the Patriots because the deep threat is coming from the inside tight ends and
their best wide receiver, Welker, is really a slot-type wide out, a type of
player guys like Webster and Revis rarely cover. In games with the Patriots, Revis is able to make that
transition pretty well, but it will be interesting to see if Webster is up for
the task. The Giants are going to
need to devote at least half their coverage guys to preventing big plays from
Gronk and Hernandez, which means it will be up to Webster to handle the Common
Cold (Wes
Welker), who may be the X-factor in this game for the Patriots
offensively.
I trust I’m not saying anything angry Brady doesn’t already
know.
4. There is still no
question as to who is the league’s best head coach. Naming anyone to this superlative other
than Bill Belichick is simply wrong and, like Brady, Belichick is in a position
to become revered among the game’s all-time great coaches with a win in
Indianapolis. New England’s
commitment to winning and Brady’s game time hostility are all fabrications of a
strategy Belichick has been devising since the second after Billy Cundiff’s
shank heard ‘round the world.
The Giants defeated New England earlier in the year, but since
2009, the Patriots have not been defeated by a team in consecutive
meetings. That is a testament to
Belichick. Even in 2008 without
Brady, the Pats came within a wildcat introductory loss of making the
playoffs. There is no coach in the
league that can match Belichick in essentially any regard. He has maybe his youngest Super Bowl
team of them all, but you can be sure they will be ready. Coughlin, on the other hand, produces
notoriously slow starts to games.
New England is going to come out firing and Belichick is going to
strangle the Giants with his sordid hoodie at the first chance he gets.
5. The Patriots have
recorded all of the Giants' practices anyways.
-AW
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