So that’s it. Season over. Again. As Kevin Durant continues to prove he deserves to be in the conversation of the 2-4 best players in the NBA, leading the league in scoring yet again with 28 ppg, Greg Oden, the man with who he will be forever compared, has suffered a season ending injury for the third time in his career. Through his first 3 seasons, Durant has averaged 20.3, 25.3, and 30.1 points per game. It took Kobe 5 seasons to eclipse 25.3, and 10 to surpass 30.1 (although he did get 30.0 after 7 years in the NBA). LeBron’s single best season output was 31.4, also recorded in his third year in the league. Wade topped 30.1 in his sixth season. In other words, Durant’s rise into the NBA elite has been quicker than the guys with whom he currently shares the position. Despite the tragic choice to select Oden ahead of Durant, the Portland Trail Blazers are holding their own in the Western Conference.
The thing about professional sports today is that every decision a team or player makes is analyzed, re-analyzed, and then analyzed again a few years after the fact (and then re-analyzed again). A single choice can have highly significant consequences for the future and everyone knows this. You can’t help but ask…
What If… The Portland Trailblazers were better at drafting?
This goes back to a simple question that NBA GMs (and fantasy owners) must face every year. Should I draft the powerful, dominating center or the flashier scorer? Should I draft based on need or based on talent? For Portland, they decided that a big 7 footer would be more beneficial than a shooting guard-small forward. Unfortunately, this decision would come to haunt the organization for the rest of its history, particularly for the first 13 years following the decision. No, this is not a discussion on Oden and Durant. This is a discussion on an even more poorly conceived decision. Portland elected to draft Sam Bowie with the second overall pick in the 1984 draft, passing on a man named Michael Jordan. As Bowie served as the team coat hanger, Michael Jordan went on the produce the most dominating career in American Sports History. You’d think that when faced with the decision again nearly 25 years later, the front office would remember what can only be described as the biggest blunder in the existence of sports. As philosopher, George Santayana, once said, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”
Well, I guess that would make the Blazers condemned.
Lets pretend they did select Durant. What would this mean? Well, they were already fortunate enough to have young superstar, Brandon Roy. So, with both, you would have to put Portland down as one of the best teams in all of the NBA for the next 5 years. The really scary thing is, as good as Roy and Durant are, they may not been in their primes yet. They are two of the most unselfish and dedicated young stars in the association. Together, they would be like Wade and LeBron in Miami except people would love them.
Here are some other hypotheticals.
What if LeBron took his talents to the windy city?
From the moment the LeBron sweepstakes first took off, I said there was no better fit for LeBron than Chicago. They have one of the leagues best point guards, some terrific defenders, and a fantastic supporting cast that is already good enough to play tough in the postseason the last 2 years. What were they missing? A superstar scorer.
Derrick Rose is currently averaging 25.6 points per game, third most and the highest for point guards. After the aforementioned Durant, Rose might be my favorite player in the league. He has unmatched quickness, tremendous vision, and outstanding leadership. The thing about Rose is that he has unfair responsibilities. He has to run the offense, facilitate, and be the go-to scorer. There’s lots of great point guards right now, but I would argue, given expectations and requirements, Rose is the best. He doesn’t have the talent around him to facilitate like Rondo. He doesn’t have the best scorer in the league like Westbrook. Deron Williams and Chris Paul are the only ones I could conceivably rank higher. But, what if he had LeBron, or should I say, what if LeBron had him?
The simple answer: They would both be surefire top 10 players. Rose could finally become more of a 1 than a 2, but teams would need to respect his ability to shred them on his own. He would almost never get double teamed, since that would be an invitation to sling it to LeBron, in which case, he could destroy most man-to-man defenses. As for LeBron, his assist numbers might decline, but his rebounds would probably increase. Even scarier, his ppg could go up too. With Rose, James could finally become the post presence that he so needs to be, at least on occasion. If Rose could increase his steals and FT%, his admittance into the fantasy elite would be unquestioned. The Bulls would be a better team than the Heat are currently, or will be come May. If LeBron and Wade are Tony Park and Eva Longoria, Rose and LeBron would certainly be Jay-Z and Beyonce (my appeal to different audiences. I think that made sense).
What if Antonio Gates went pro in basketball?
The NFl’s best tight end never played football at Kent State University. He played basketball for the school, averaging 16 and 20.6 points over the course of two years. However, at 6’5, Gates was told he was too small to play in the NBA. He looked towards football. The Chargers signed him as an undrafted free agent. Since 2004, only Marvin Harrison, Randy Moss, and Terrell Owens (the three best receivers since the retirement of Jerry Rice) have more touchdowns. Although fantasy TE overall rankings change from year to year, there should be no reason to draft anyone ahead of Gates. Ever. If Gates went into the NBA, he would have probably been a role/defense/hustle player on some top 10 team and probably never see a starting role on a fantasy squad. What a sad fate that would have been for one of the most valuable of fantasy stars.
What if Wade Phillips was fired when he should have been (this could be anything from he earliest of last season to the latest of week 4 this year)?
I’ve been calling for the firing of Mr. “I Don’t Know Where I am, What I am Doing, or If the Game Just Ended or is About to Begin” for two years now. Finally, after months upon months of frustration, Jerry Jones decided to say goodbye. I just don’t understand how Wade lasted until the end of week 9.
Honestly, the answer to the question at hand is very, very simple. If Wade was not the coach of the Dallas Cowboys at all this season, Dallas would probably be 6-4 at worst and 8-2 at best. I understand that players need to take accountability for poor performances, but it was apparent that the entire team lost all confidence and respect in him. If he was fired after the 1-4 start, at which point things started to get really ugly, I would have to assume that Dallas could have been 4-6 or 5-5 at this point, getting ready to make a San Diego-esque run for the playoffs. You would have to therefore figure that the numbers for every offensive player would increase. Yeah, Romo would still be done for most of the season (he would probably make an effort to come back at the end if his team was actually competitive), but even with Kitna at QB this team has enough weapons to air it out, run the ball effectively, and play consistent defense.
Unfortunately, the removal of Phillips from the organization has brought an abrupt stop to all the jokes being made at his expense. Therefore, I now present my farewell to Wade Phillips in the only way I know possible...
When asked about the upcoming week, Phillips responded by saying, “I don’t even know who we play next.” When asked about the game he just lost, Phillips responded by saying, “I don’t even know who we just played.”
Wade once spent an entire game getting red in the face because none of his players were listening to him and Dallas seemed to totally abandon their game plan. It wasn’t until the fourth quarter he realized he was at a Maverick’s game.
Wade has developed tennis elbow on 17 different occasions due his repeated tendency to plant his right hand against his forehead.
Wade once held the world record for going 3 days without blinking (This award was taken when a committee decided he was using the “squint” approach that had been made illegal 4 years earlier).
The password to Wade Phillip’s computer is “Tony Romo”
The password to Tony Romo’s computer is “Fire Wade Phillips”
Nobody really knows what’s going on in Phillip’s head during games, but I guess it would be something like this:
What if this article ended before those sad attempts at humor?
It would have been better.
-AW
To see this article in its original version, go to: http://www.hotboxsports.com/article/2010/11/What-If--2
Sunday, November 28, 2010
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
The Brilliance of Neil Rackers
There are not many, things in life that can generate feelings of unbounded victory, accomplishment, joy, and arrogance. Making a great fantasy move is one of the select few. A great draft pick is a nice way to go about reaching nirvana. Everyone remembers the picks they made that caused people to shake their heads, whisper to the person next to them, or flat out laugh at you (for some this happens more than for others), but turned out to be the reason you won the league. These bad-by-the-consensus-picks-turned-legendary are great, but a great free agent pickup might be even better. There's something deeply satisfying about ditching some bust-deadweight nobody like Jerome Harrison for a top 15 player like Brandon Lloyd. You feel like you cheated the system, but in the best way possible. Lloyd owners, along with those of Josh Freeman, Steve Johnson, Mike Tolbert, and Peyton Hillis can attest to this. Not everyone remembers great FA pickups, but I do.
The year is 2005, one in which Shaun Alexander, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Larry Johnson put up three of the greatest individual fantasy seasons ever. The running back trio's combined numbers were a ridiculous 5611 all-purpose yards and 72 touchdowns. For comparison, CJ, MJD, and AP put up 6093 all purpose yards last season, but scored 22 less touchdowns. Using standard fantasy scoring, the 2005 trio produced 78 more fantasy points than their 2009 contemporaries. Also consider that LJ got over 13 carries or more only once through the first 7 weeks.
Now, about that great free agent pickup…
Let me preface what I am about to say by clearly explaining my opinion of NFL kickers. Quite simply, there is no such thing as a good kicker, rather, only degrees of mediocrity. Take for example, NY Jets kicker, Nick Folk. Folk started out the season pretty good, hitting 13 of 15 field goals. However, since the bye, Folk has been downright atrocious, connecting on just 5 of his 9 attempts. Last Sunday, Folk committed the infamous, "Woops-I-just-missed-3-fieldgoals" double-whammy, simultaneously screwing over not only my favorite professional sports team, but also my first place fantasy one. As his 24-yard field goal attempt smacked off the right goal post, releasing a disheartening sound that can only be compared to the one produced while flat lining, at first I was shocked, but I soon realized, it should have been expected. I mean, why would he make it? It's in his blood to ruin a 19 play (most by any team this season), 10:04 minute drive to open the second half.
I wrote the following on my blog (www.adamweinberger.blogspot.com) this past May:
Speaking of kickers, I have a total lack of respect for their position. Maybe I don't understand the intricacies of kicking a football, but if kickers are paid exclusively for the purpose of booting a football through the uprights, how in world do so many of them struggle from within 40 yards. I just don't understand. It defies all logic. Can you imagine if the failure rate of kicking was transferred to another job?
"Mrs. Miller, you could bring your son in to see the dentist, or, you could go for it and hope that he doesn't have cavities. It's your risk."
"Risk? Isn't it just a routine checkup?"
"Well, Mrs. Miller, you would think so, but Dr. Brown has a history of inexplicably making mistakes when dealing with the 'routine.'"
"Oh… maybe I should see another dentist then."
"Nope, that wouldn't be a solution. They're basically all like that."
Now that I've gotten that out of the way, after the aforementioned Larry Johnson, the best free agent acquisition of 2005 was none other than Arizona place kicker, Neil Rackers.
Excuse me?
Neil Rackers produced the greatest season for a kicker in NFL history, and resultantly, an unparalleled fantasy season. Rackers' numbers were so dominating that, in my league, he was his owner's best offensive player. Needless to say, anyone whose best player is a kicker doesn't have a very good team, but regardless, that's flat out impressive.
His 95 kick percentage in 2005 was the 13th best single season number of all time. Rackers drilled 40 out of 42 field goals, the record for the most made in a single season. And he hit them from everywhere! Rackers was 13/14 for kicks from 40-49 yards and 6/7 for those 50 and longer. Teams should be happy when their kickers go 19 out of 21 from any distance. Forget about for the long ones.
Rackers wasn't just a good kicker, he was the entire scoring attack for the Cardinals. He produced 140 points in 2005, which is the 31st most ever in a single season by a player at any position. Kicker, Gary Anderson, scored 164 points in 1998, the most ever for his position. But, he got to kick 59 extra points. Fifty-nine! That's the eight most ever in a single season. Rackers got a third of that. His 20 extra points attempted doesn't even fall in the top 250 for a single season.
I have always said that drafting a kicker earlier than the last round in a fantasy draft is a total waste of a pick. Having a good (very relative word) kicker doesn't necessarily equate to a good fantasy kicker. What you really need is a "good" kicker on a team with a 6.5/10 offense. If the attack is too good, you get PATs not FGs and if they aren't good enough, you get punts (In fact, I usually don't even bother drafting a kicker since it can be difficult to judge which ones fit the 6.5/10 group. The difference between the best and worst kickers on a fantasy team is usually minimal. I once won a league in which I picked up a new kicker each week depending on the matchup).
Anyways, Rackers played for the best 6.5/10 offense I have ever seen. The stalling abilities of the team were totally unparalleled. The Cardinals were 8th in total offense, yet, 28th in offensive touchdowns! Are you kidding me!? That is unbelievable! Even Houston and Buffalo, whose respective total offensive rankings were 30 and 28, scored more touchdowns than Arizona. In fact, the only teams who scored fewer touchdowns than the Cardinals were the Ravens (24th offense), Browns (26), Jets (31), and 49ers (32). Only because of Rackers' brilliance was Arizona able to bring their total scoring ranking up to 17. For fantasy leagues in which kickers are awarded an incremental value per kick (1 point for PAT, 3 points 0-39, 4 points 40-49, 5 points 50 plus), Rackers' fantasy total was 165 points. That number has not been matched since. If you play in leagues that penalize misses than his stats are even better.
2005 may have been the year of the running back, but it should be the year of the kicker too.
By the way, next off-season the New York Jets will be the center of a new HBO show: Disbarred Jocks: The Expulsion of the Kicker. As part of the show, there will be an open tryout. There will be no premium placed on experience, since any recent success basically means a collapse is in the near future. If you have 1 leg and an eye you can enter. In fact, the eye thing is optional too.
-AW
As first seen at: http://www.hotboxsports.com/article/2010/11/The-Brilliance-of-Neil-Rackers
The year is 2005, one in which Shaun Alexander, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Larry Johnson put up three of the greatest individual fantasy seasons ever. The running back trio's combined numbers were a ridiculous 5611 all-purpose yards and 72 touchdowns. For comparison, CJ, MJD, and AP put up 6093 all purpose yards last season, but scored 22 less touchdowns. Using standard fantasy scoring, the 2005 trio produced 78 more fantasy points than their 2009 contemporaries. Also consider that LJ got over 13 carries or more only once through the first 7 weeks.
Now, about that great free agent pickup…
Let me preface what I am about to say by clearly explaining my opinion of NFL kickers. Quite simply, there is no such thing as a good kicker, rather, only degrees of mediocrity. Take for example, NY Jets kicker, Nick Folk. Folk started out the season pretty good, hitting 13 of 15 field goals. However, since the bye, Folk has been downright atrocious, connecting on just 5 of his 9 attempts. Last Sunday, Folk committed the infamous, "Woops-I-just-missed-3-fieldgoals" double-whammy, simultaneously screwing over not only my favorite professional sports team, but also my first place fantasy one. As his 24-yard field goal attempt smacked off the right goal post, releasing a disheartening sound that can only be compared to the one produced while flat lining, at first I was shocked, but I soon realized, it should have been expected. I mean, why would he make it? It's in his blood to ruin a 19 play (most by any team this season), 10:04 minute drive to open the second half.
I wrote the following on my blog (www.adamweinberger.blogspot.com) this past May:
Speaking of kickers, I have a total lack of respect for their position. Maybe I don't understand the intricacies of kicking a football, but if kickers are paid exclusively for the purpose of booting a football through the uprights, how in world do so many of them struggle from within 40 yards. I just don't understand. It defies all logic. Can you imagine if the failure rate of kicking was transferred to another job?
"Mrs. Miller, you could bring your son in to see the dentist, or, you could go for it and hope that he doesn't have cavities. It's your risk."
"Risk? Isn't it just a routine checkup?"
"Well, Mrs. Miller, you would think so, but Dr. Brown has a history of inexplicably making mistakes when dealing with the 'routine.'"
"Oh… maybe I should see another dentist then."
"Nope, that wouldn't be a solution. They're basically all like that."
Now that I've gotten that out of the way, after the aforementioned Larry Johnson, the best free agent acquisition of 2005 was none other than Arizona place kicker, Neil Rackers.
Excuse me?
Neil Rackers produced the greatest season for a kicker in NFL history, and resultantly, an unparalleled fantasy season. Rackers' numbers were so dominating that, in my league, he was his owner's best offensive player. Needless to say, anyone whose best player is a kicker doesn't have a very good team, but regardless, that's flat out impressive.
His 95 kick percentage in 2005 was the 13th best single season number of all time. Rackers drilled 40 out of 42 field goals, the record for the most made in a single season. And he hit them from everywhere! Rackers was 13/14 for kicks from 40-49 yards and 6/7 for those 50 and longer. Teams should be happy when their kickers go 19 out of 21 from any distance. Forget about for the long ones.
Rackers wasn't just a good kicker, he was the entire scoring attack for the Cardinals. He produced 140 points in 2005, which is the 31st most ever in a single season by a player at any position. Kicker, Gary Anderson, scored 164 points in 1998, the most ever for his position. But, he got to kick 59 extra points. Fifty-nine! That's the eight most ever in a single season. Rackers got a third of that. His 20 extra points attempted doesn't even fall in the top 250 for a single season.
I have always said that drafting a kicker earlier than the last round in a fantasy draft is a total waste of a pick. Having a good (very relative word) kicker doesn't necessarily equate to a good fantasy kicker. What you really need is a "good" kicker on a team with a 6.5/10 offense. If the attack is too good, you get PATs not FGs and if they aren't good enough, you get punts (In fact, I usually don't even bother drafting a kicker since it can be difficult to judge which ones fit the 6.5/10 group. The difference between the best and worst kickers on a fantasy team is usually minimal. I once won a league in which I picked up a new kicker each week depending on the matchup).
Anyways, Rackers played for the best 6.5/10 offense I have ever seen. The stalling abilities of the team were totally unparalleled. The Cardinals were 8th in total offense, yet, 28th in offensive touchdowns! Are you kidding me!? That is unbelievable! Even Houston and Buffalo, whose respective total offensive rankings were 30 and 28, scored more touchdowns than Arizona. In fact, the only teams who scored fewer touchdowns than the Cardinals were the Ravens (24th offense), Browns (26), Jets (31), and 49ers (32). Only because of Rackers' brilliance was Arizona able to bring their total scoring ranking up to 17. For fantasy leagues in which kickers are awarded an incremental value per kick (1 point for PAT, 3 points 0-39, 4 points 40-49, 5 points 50 plus), Rackers' fantasy total was 165 points. That number has not been matched since. If you play in leagues that penalize misses than his stats are even better.
2005 may have been the year of the running back, but it should be the year of the kicker too.
By the way, next off-season the New York Jets will be the center of a new HBO show: Disbarred Jocks: The Expulsion of the Kicker. As part of the show, there will be an open tryout. There will be no premium placed on experience, since any recent success basically means a collapse is in the near future. If you have 1 leg and an eye you can enter. In fact, the eye thing is optional too.
-AW
As first seen at: http://www.hotboxsports.com/article/2010/11/The-Brilliance-of-Neil-Rackers
Monday, November 8, 2010
What I've Been Up To, Sorting Through the Jumble
No new articles in 2 weeks?
Actually, I have been writing, just not on this site. As you can see in my "About Me" section, I am currently doing some writing for Hot Box Sports, a fantasy sports website. I was originally unsure if I'd be able to post these articles on this site, but was recently informed that doing so would be fine. So, without further holdup, I will share my first article, which appeared on the hotboxsports.com webpage on November 2, 2010.
Sorting Through the NFL Jumble
Written by Adam Weinberger
Parody. It's probably the only word that's been used in professional football more often this season than the words "Brett Favre." Parody describes so many different aspects of the NFL season thus far. At the start of week eight, only one division leader (Kansas City) sits more than 1 game ahead of the second place team (Oakland, yes, Oakland). Twelve teams are two games or more over .500, but of those twelve, only three teams have 1 loss and two of those teams (Jets and Patriots) are in the same division, hence, greater parody.
Picking the best team in the AFC is a difficult endeavor, as none of its top 5 teams has emerged as the best, since they continue to lose to one another. The Steelers' only loss came to the Ravens. The Ravens lost to the Patriots, whose only loss was to the Jets. The Jets only loss was to the Ravens. The Titans, who have quietly made their way to 5-2, also lost to the Steelers, but were able to beat the NY Giants and Philadelphia Eagles, possibly the two best NFC teams. As for the NFC, the conference is a jumbled as the AFC. Only two NFC teams have reached the five win mark. The Giants are my pick as the NFC's best, as their only losses came against the 5-2 Titans and the 4-2 Colts. Atlanta, the other 5-2 team, lost to the Eagles, but also to the Roethlisbergerless Steelers. Parody.
The effects of the lunacy that is the 2010 NFL season have impacted fantasy football tremendously, but no position has been as affected as the wide receivers. Last years top 20 wide receivers, in terms of yardage, were: Andre Johnson, Wes Welker, Miles Austin, Sidney Rice, Reggie Wayne, Randy Moss, Santonio Holmes, Steve Smith (NYG), Hines Ward, Vincent Jackson, DeSean Jackson, Roddy White, Brandon Marshall, Greg Jennings, Larry Fitzgerald, Marques Colston, Donald Driver, Chad Ochocinco, Derrick Mason, and Anquan Boldin. Only 10 of those 20 are currently in the top 20. Of the top 10 from last season, only Reggie Wayne and Miles Austin currently rank there. Some of this has been due to injury (Johnson, Welker, Rice, D. Jackson), trade (Holmes, Marshall, Moss), suspension (V. Jackson, Holmes, again), or corpses disguised as quarterbacks (CAR Smith, Fitzgerald).
The imminent question is thus, is there a changing of the order for wide receivers? Are top WR fixtures like Steve Smith (CAR), Hines Ward, Larry Fitzgerald, Marques Colston, Donald Driver, and Chad Ochocinco past their expiration date? Are Hakeem Nicks, Austin Collie, Brandon Lloyd, Jeremy Maclin, Kenny Britt, Malcom Floyd, Jabar Gaffney, Percy "The Migraine" Harvin, and Steve Johnson (on the Bills of all teams!) the new class of the NFL? Let's not jump to that conclusion just yet. Choosing whom to sit, start, trade, and release can be an agonizing process replete with frustration, depression, and second guessing. Don't fret, though, for I have provided my second half projections for wide receivers. Here is the top 20 for the duration for the season.
20: Santana Moss (WAS)
Only three times in Moss's career has he reeled in over 1000 yards receiving, although he is on pace to do so this season. Clearly, the change to McNabb has been beneficial for Moss, as he has emerged as the favorite target. His 63 target this season place him ninth on the list. However, the Redskins have 5 games left this season against a defensive that currently ranks in the top 10 in pass defense. Anticipate a little decline in his surprisingly good numbers.
19: Austin Collie (IND)
Collie was a dream-come-true for fantasy owners up until he got sidelined indefinitely with a thumb surgery. Who knows if and/or when he will get back on the field, but anyone who ranks twelfth in receiving yards, fourth in touchdowns, and fourth in receptions must be included. Until he returns, look for Pierre Garcon to emerge as a potential top 10 wide receiver. If you play on the same field as Manning, your numbers will dramatically improve.
18: DeSean Jackson (PHI)
One of my favorite players in the league and probably the most exciting, Jackson's upcoming performance is perhaps the most difficult to judge out of anybody on this list. He's coming off a concussion, must deal with quarterback changes, has 5 games against top 8 pass defenses, and must share the spotlight with a soon to be named wide out.
17: Percy Harvin (MIN)
The premier do-it-all player in the league, Harvin has been on fire since his first 2 matchups. He has scored at least once in his last 4 games in three different ways (receiving, rushing, return). The addition of Moss, and the double coverage he draws, as well as a soft schedule with only 2 top-10 pass defenses, suggests Harvin will continue to prove useful to fantasy owners. The only problem with Harvin is that his success hinges on the health of Favre, who I truly believe will be done for the season within the next few weeks, giving all-worldly-awful Tavaris Jackson the nod at QB. If this is the case, Harvin will fall into the aforementioned group of receivers with "corpses disguised as quarterbacks," a sad fate for any up-and-coming wide receiver.
16: Jeremy Maclin (PHI)
Maclin faces all the challenges of teammate DeSean Jackson, with exception of the concussion issue. He has the big play ability of Jackson, but seems to have a bit more consistency. Maclin has produced at least 80 yards and/or a touchdown in all but 2 games this season. Look for his numbers to continue to improve.
15: Randy Moss (MIN)
It remains to be seen whether Moss will be anything more than a decoy in Minnesota. Only because of past merit, which goes a long way for Randy, is he ranked so highly. His 2 highest yardage outputs this season were 81 and 59. Moss is yet to catch more than 5 balls in a single game. He does have 5 touchdowns, but for somebody who has scored 10 or more touchdowns 9 times in his career, such scoring success is the norm. Again, the Vikings only play 2 more games against a top-10 pass defense, so I do anticipate an increase in Moss' performance, especially if Favre can stay healthy.
14: Terrell Owens (CIN)
There's nothing like a 10 catch, 222 yard, 1 touchdown performance (all in a losing effort) to skew your season numbers. However, Owens followed it up with 16 receptions, 190 yards, and 2 touchdowns over the next two games. Why so low then? I just have little confidence in the Bengals and think Owens owners should start getting used to hit-or-miss games, based on the inconsistency of his team as a whole. Plus, Owens is 36 years old and can, at any moment, have a cataclysmic explosion.
13: Marques Colston (NO)
Colston's production, much like the performance of the entire Saints offense, has been surprisingly pedestrian thus far. Owners have been highly disappointed with a guy who, in four years in the league, has produced 3 seasons of 70 catches, 1000 yards, and 8 touchdowns. However, not all hope is lost. Colston has 24 receptions for 264 yards and his first touchdown over the course of the last 3 games. He continues to be Brees' favorite option and is the only New Orleans receiver with over 45 targets. The Saints will face 3 top 10 passing defenses, but also 3 in the bottom 10. You also have to anticipate an increase in the performance of the Saints passing attack overall.
12: Greg Jennings (GB)
Last season, through the first 7 games, Jennings eclipsed 80 yards only 3 times. He finished the year with 1113 yards. This year, through the first 7, Jennings has surpassed the 80 yard mark twice, but his 5 touchdowns are already more than the number of times he scored all of last year. Even more pleasing for owners, Jennings' 5 touchdowns have been evenly distributed, as he has scored in all but 2 games.
11: Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)
Fitzgerald is one of the three best wide receivers in the National Football League but, to his detriment, might have the worst quarterback situation. The Cardinals are dead last in passing yards per game. He currently ranks outside of the top 25 in both yardage and touchdowns. Fitzgerald has been targeted 65 times, but has only reeled in 29 balls. Nonetheless, I expect to see his numbers reach closer to what is expected as his relationship with his quarterback(s) improves.
10: Brandon Lloyd (DEN)
Lloyd needs only 24 yards to surpass his highest single-season yardage mark of his career. He is currently second in receiving yards with 4 games of over 100 yards. Some might consider this a low ranking for a player currently among the fantasy elite, but I just don't see him continuing his pace and surpassing the guys listed after him. Also consider that Orton's passing numbers have decreased every game since week 3.
9: Anquan Boldin (BAL)
Unlike his long time teammate Larry Fitzgerald, Boldin has thrived since they split. Most of Boldin's numbers have come in three games (344/518 yards, 4/5 touchdowns) but he does have 5 games with 5 or more receptions. The Ravens still face 5 teams with winning records, meaning there is a pretty good chance they will need to be passing and cannot simply take an early lead and ride Rice to victory. I expect Boldin to easily finish within the top 10 this season.
8: Steve Smith (NYG)
Smith is beginning to emerge as an elite fantasy wide out once again. Playing along side Hakeem Nicks (to be later named), Smith has become a reliable possession receiver for Eli Manning. He has five or more receptions in all but 2 games, including 2 games with 9. Nicks takes most of the goal line looks, which explains the low number of touchdowns (2) for Smith. However, those 2 touchdowns have come in the last 3 games, suggesting an increase for the rest of the season.
7: Brandon Marshall (MIA)
New team, same result. Marshall is third in the league in targets, sixth in receptions, and eighth in yards. If he can begin to find the end zone he will be able to move up this list and possibly into the top 5. Even more pleasing for fantasy owners, Marshall has 1 remaining game against a top 10 pass defense.
6: Miles Austin (DAL)
The injury to Romo may actually help Austin. Despite his talents and success, he is ranked 19th in targets. Kitna hasn't played real, meaningful football for a number of seasons and will be looking to the team's best and most consistent receiver for help, suggesting Austin's targets will increase. Remember, it wasn't too long ago that Kitna was a relatively successful fantasy quarterback (emphasis on the word, "fantasy"). Austin has been perhaps the most hit-or-miss receiver this season, despite great consistency in 2009. He has three games of over 9 catches and 140 yards, but also has three with less than 40 yards.
5: Calvin Johnson (DET)
It is becoming evident that regardless of the score, quarterback, or opposition, Johnson is a dangerous wide receiver. He has great touchdown abilities and is on pace for one of his best seasons in terms of yardage. Once Stafford becomes healthy his numbers will improve even further.
4: Hakeem Nicks (NYG)
Speaking of touchdown threat… Nicks already has 8 scores and honestly could have had 3 more if he lowered his head and pushed for extra yardage a little bit. He has all the makings of a great wide receiver and is starting to remind me of another tall Giants wide receiver with the ability to take over a game (unfortunately for the other guy, he may be able to take over a game but can't hold a gun in his pocket). He continues to gain the trust of Manning and may finish as the best wide receiver of the 2010 season.
3: Reggie Wayne (IND)
Wayne continues to prove, year after year, that he should be in the conversation of league's best receiver. He's the number 3 receiver in terms of yards and number 2 receiver in terms of receptions. Wayne is one of the three or four most consistent wide outs in the league and one of the very few to carry his 2009 success over into this season. Following the Dallas Clark injury, Wayne is now the undisputed go-to-guy for Manning and his numbers will reflect this.
2: Andre Johnson (HOU)
The best receiver in the NFL battled injuries through the first few weeks, but has still done a pretty solid job of defending his position. The Texans continue to prove that they run a defense-optional style team, and this decision means tremendous offensive numbers, especially for their star players like Johnson. Unlike some of the other receivers on this list, the defense he faces is almost irrelevant, as Johnson is expected to, and usually does, perform at a high level every week.
1: Roddy White (ATL)
White leads the NFL in targets, receptions, and yards. His 5 touchdowns are sixth best. What makes White so incredible is that he is capable of producing monstrous games (see last week's 201 yard explosion) and also has unmatched consistency (his WORST fantasy performance this season was 6 receptions and 83 yards). He's on a great team with a great quarterback and I see no reason why his production will dip even a little.
Parody, Parody, Parody. Including those last three, that is now seven more times the word has been used in association with football. I hope it's enough to keep its small lead on the words "Br____ Fav____."
-AW
To read the article in its original posting on hotboxsports.com, go to: http://www.hotboxsports.com/article/2010/11/Sorting-Through-the-NFL-Jumble
Actually, I have been writing, just not on this site. As you can see in my "About Me" section, I am currently doing some writing for Hot Box Sports, a fantasy sports website. I was originally unsure if I'd be able to post these articles on this site, but was recently informed that doing so would be fine. So, without further holdup, I will share my first article, which appeared on the hotboxsports.com webpage on November 2, 2010.
Sorting Through the NFL Jumble
Written by Adam Weinberger
Parody. It's probably the only word that's been used in professional football more often this season than the words "Brett Favre." Parody describes so many different aspects of the NFL season thus far. At the start of week eight, only one division leader (Kansas City) sits more than 1 game ahead of the second place team (Oakland, yes, Oakland). Twelve teams are two games or more over .500, but of those twelve, only three teams have 1 loss and two of those teams (Jets and Patriots) are in the same division, hence, greater parody.
Picking the best team in the AFC is a difficult endeavor, as none of its top 5 teams has emerged as the best, since they continue to lose to one another. The Steelers' only loss came to the Ravens. The Ravens lost to the Patriots, whose only loss was to the Jets. The Jets only loss was to the Ravens. The Titans, who have quietly made their way to 5-2, also lost to the Steelers, but were able to beat the NY Giants and Philadelphia Eagles, possibly the two best NFC teams. As for the NFC, the conference is a jumbled as the AFC. Only two NFC teams have reached the five win mark. The Giants are my pick as the NFC's best, as their only losses came against the 5-2 Titans and the 4-2 Colts. Atlanta, the other 5-2 team, lost to the Eagles, but also to the Roethlisbergerless Steelers. Parody.
The effects of the lunacy that is the 2010 NFL season have impacted fantasy football tremendously, but no position has been as affected as the wide receivers. Last years top 20 wide receivers, in terms of yardage, were: Andre Johnson, Wes Welker, Miles Austin, Sidney Rice, Reggie Wayne, Randy Moss, Santonio Holmes, Steve Smith (NYG), Hines Ward, Vincent Jackson, DeSean Jackson, Roddy White, Brandon Marshall, Greg Jennings, Larry Fitzgerald, Marques Colston, Donald Driver, Chad Ochocinco, Derrick Mason, and Anquan Boldin. Only 10 of those 20 are currently in the top 20. Of the top 10 from last season, only Reggie Wayne and Miles Austin currently rank there. Some of this has been due to injury (Johnson, Welker, Rice, D. Jackson), trade (Holmes, Marshall, Moss), suspension (V. Jackson, Holmes, again), or corpses disguised as quarterbacks (CAR Smith, Fitzgerald).
The imminent question is thus, is there a changing of the order for wide receivers? Are top WR fixtures like Steve Smith (CAR), Hines Ward, Larry Fitzgerald, Marques Colston, Donald Driver, and Chad Ochocinco past their expiration date? Are Hakeem Nicks, Austin Collie, Brandon Lloyd, Jeremy Maclin, Kenny Britt, Malcom Floyd, Jabar Gaffney, Percy "The Migraine" Harvin, and Steve Johnson (on the Bills of all teams!) the new class of the NFL? Let's not jump to that conclusion just yet. Choosing whom to sit, start, trade, and release can be an agonizing process replete with frustration, depression, and second guessing. Don't fret, though, for I have provided my second half projections for wide receivers. Here is the top 20 for the duration for the season.
20: Santana Moss (WAS)
Only three times in Moss's career has he reeled in over 1000 yards receiving, although he is on pace to do so this season. Clearly, the change to McNabb has been beneficial for Moss, as he has emerged as the favorite target. His 63 target this season place him ninth on the list. However, the Redskins have 5 games left this season against a defensive that currently ranks in the top 10 in pass defense. Anticipate a little decline in his surprisingly good numbers.
19: Austin Collie (IND)
Collie was a dream-come-true for fantasy owners up until he got sidelined indefinitely with a thumb surgery. Who knows if and/or when he will get back on the field, but anyone who ranks twelfth in receiving yards, fourth in touchdowns, and fourth in receptions must be included. Until he returns, look for Pierre Garcon to emerge as a potential top 10 wide receiver. If you play on the same field as Manning, your numbers will dramatically improve.
18: DeSean Jackson (PHI)
One of my favorite players in the league and probably the most exciting, Jackson's upcoming performance is perhaps the most difficult to judge out of anybody on this list. He's coming off a concussion, must deal with quarterback changes, has 5 games against top 8 pass defenses, and must share the spotlight with a soon to be named wide out.
17: Percy Harvin (MIN)
The premier do-it-all player in the league, Harvin has been on fire since his first 2 matchups. He has scored at least once in his last 4 games in three different ways (receiving, rushing, return). The addition of Moss, and the double coverage he draws, as well as a soft schedule with only 2 top-10 pass defenses, suggests Harvin will continue to prove useful to fantasy owners. The only problem with Harvin is that his success hinges on the health of Favre, who I truly believe will be done for the season within the next few weeks, giving all-worldly-awful Tavaris Jackson the nod at QB. If this is the case, Harvin will fall into the aforementioned group of receivers with "corpses disguised as quarterbacks," a sad fate for any up-and-coming wide receiver.
16: Jeremy Maclin (PHI)
Maclin faces all the challenges of teammate DeSean Jackson, with exception of the concussion issue. He has the big play ability of Jackson, but seems to have a bit more consistency. Maclin has produced at least 80 yards and/or a touchdown in all but 2 games this season. Look for his numbers to continue to improve.
15: Randy Moss (MIN)
It remains to be seen whether Moss will be anything more than a decoy in Minnesota. Only because of past merit, which goes a long way for Randy, is he ranked so highly. His 2 highest yardage outputs this season were 81 and 59. Moss is yet to catch more than 5 balls in a single game. He does have 5 touchdowns, but for somebody who has scored 10 or more touchdowns 9 times in his career, such scoring success is the norm. Again, the Vikings only play 2 more games against a top-10 pass defense, so I do anticipate an increase in Moss' performance, especially if Favre can stay healthy.
14: Terrell Owens (CIN)
There's nothing like a 10 catch, 222 yard, 1 touchdown performance (all in a losing effort) to skew your season numbers. However, Owens followed it up with 16 receptions, 190 yards, and 2 touchdowns over the next two games. Why so low then? I just have little confidence in the Bengals and think Owens owners should start getting used to hit-or-miss games, based on the inconsistency of his team as a whole. Plus, Owens is 36 years old and can, at any moment, have a cataclysmic explosion.
13: Marques Colston (NO)
Colston's production, much like the performance of the entire Saints offense, has been surprisingly pedestrian thus far. Owners have been highly disappointed with a guy who, in four years in the league, has produced 3 seasons of 70 catches, 1000 yards, and 8 touchdowns. However, not all hope is lost. Colston has 24 receptions for 264 yards and his first touchdown over the course of the last 3 games. He continues to be Brees' favorite option and is the only New Orleans receiver with over 45 targets. The Saints will face 3 top 10 passing defenses, but also 3 in the bottom 10. You also have to anticipate an increase in the performance of the Saints passing attack overall.
12: Greg Jennings (GB)
Last season, through the first 7 games, Jennings eclipsed 80 yards only 3 times. He finished the year with 1113 yards. This year, through the first 7, Jennings has surpassed the 80 yard mark twice, but his 5 touchdowns are already more than the number of times he scored all of last year. Even more pleasing for owners, Jennings' 5 touchdowns have been evenly distributed, as he has scored in all but 2 games.
11: Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)
Fitzgerald is one of the three best wide receivers in the National Football League but, to his detriment, might have the worst quarterback situation. The Cardinals are dead last in passing yards per game. He currently ranks outside of the top 25 in both yardage and touchdowns. Fitzgerald has been targeted 65 times, but has only reeled in 29 balls. Nonetheless, I expect to see his numbers reach closer to what is expected as his relationship with his quarterback(s) improves.
10: Brandon Lloyd (DEN)
Lloyd needs only 24 yards to surpass his highest single-season yardage mark of his career. He is currently second in receiving yards with 4 games of over 100 yards. Some might consider this a low ranking for a player currently among the fantasy elite, but I just don't see him continuing his pace and surpassing the guys listed after him. Also consider that Orton's passing numbers have decreased every game since week 3.
9: Anquan Boldin (BAL)
Unlike his long time teammate Larry Fitzgerald, Boldin has thrived since they split. Most of Boldin's numbers have come in three games (344/518 yards, 4/5 touchdowns) but he does have 5 games with 5 or more receptions. The Ravens still face 5 teams with winning records, meaning there is a pretty good chance they will need to be passing and cannot simply take an early lead and ride Rice to victory. I expect Boldin to easily finish within the top 10 this season.
8: Steve Smith (NYG)
Smith is beginning to emerge as an elite fantasy wide out once again. Playing along side Hakeem Nicks (to be later named), Smith has become a reliable possession receiver for Eli Manning. He has five or more receptions in all but 2 games, including 2 games with 9. Nicks takes most of the goal line looks, which explains the low number of touchdowns (2) for Smith. However, those 2 touchdowns have come in the last 3 games, suggesting an increase for the rest of the season.
7: Brandon Marshall (MIA)
New team, same result. Marshall is third in the league in targets, sixth in receptions, and eighth in yards. If he can begin to find the end zone he will be able to move up this list and possibly into the top 5. Even more pleasing for fantasy owners, Marshall has 1 remaining game against a top 10 pass defense.
6: Miles Austin (DAL)
The injury to Romo may actually help Austin. Despite his talents and success, he is ranked 19th in targets. Kitna hasn't played real, meaningful football for a number of seasons and will be looking to the team's best and most consistent receiver for help, suggesting Austin's targets will increase. Remember, it wasn't too long ago that Kitna was a relatively successful fantasy quarterback (emphasis on the word, "fantasy"). Austin has been perhaps the most hit-or-miss receiver this season, despite great consistency in 2009. He has three games of over 9 catches and 140 yards, but also has three with less than 40 yards.
5: Calvin Johnson (DET)
It is becoming evident that regardless of the score, quarterback, or opposition, Johnson is a dangerous wide receiver. He has great touchdown abilities and is on pace for one of his best seasons in terms of yardage. Once Stafford becomes healthy his numbers will improve even further.
4: Hakeem Nicks (NYG)
Speaking of touchdown threat… Nicks already has 8 scores and honestly could have had 3 more if he lowered his head and pushed for extra yardage a little bit. He has all the makings of a great wide receiver and is starting to remind me of another tall Giants wide receiver with the ability to take over a game (unfortunately for the other guy, he may be able to take over a game but can't hold a gun in his pocket). He continues to gain the trust of Manning and may finish as the best wide receiver of the 2010 season.
3: Reggie Wayne (IND)
Wayne continues to prove, year after year, that he should be in the conversation of league's best receiver. He's the number 3 receiver in terms of yards and number 2 receiver in terms of receptions. Wayne is one of the three or four most consistent wide outs in the league and one of the very few to carry his 2009 success over into this season. Following the Dallas Clark injury, Wayne is now the undisputed go-to-guy for Manning and his numbers will reflect this.
2: Andre Johnson (HOU)
The best receiver in the NFL battled injuries through the first few weeks, but has still done a pretty solid job of defending his position. The Texans continue to prove that they run a defense-optional style team, and this decision means tremendous offensive numbers, especially for their star players like Johnson. Unlike some of the other receivers on this list, the defense he faces is almost irrelevant, as Johnson is expected to, and usually does, perform at a high level every week.
1: Roddy White (ATL)
White leads the NFL in targets, receptions, and yards. His 5 touchdowns are sixth best. What makes White so incredible is that he is capable of producing monstrous games (see last week's 201 yard explosion) and also has unmatched consistency (his WORST fantasy performance this season was 6 receptions and 83 yards). He's on a great team with a great quarterback and I see no reason why his production will dip even a little.
Parody, Parody, Parody. Including those last three, that is now seven more times the word has been used in association with football. I hope it's enough to keep its small lead on the words "Br____ Fav____."
-AW
To read the article in its original posting on hotboxsports.com, go to: http://www.hotboxsports.com/article/2010/11/Sorting-Through-the-NFL-Jumble
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