Optimism No More

My sports life is in shambles.  That crab-armed-executioner monster from 300 has taken it by the midsection and ripped it into little bits. 

Two weeks ago I was feeling great.  The Jets were 2-0.  The Yanks clinched home field while the Red Sox were starring down the inevitable end of the greatest collapse everyone saw coming from since September 1.  The Jersey Shore wasn’t a nauseating Snooki cry-fest.  I had both my testicles. 

One of those has stayed the same.

Last night the Yankees essentially had bases loaded with 4 outs.  Result: 0 hits, 0 sac-flys, 1 walk RBI (in a questionably called at-bat).  They scored 2 runs, 1 fewer then the number of starting pitchers they used during the game. 

I spent the first 6 innings of the game blaming the pitching decisions of Girardi.  “A starting pitcher can’t just pitch in a relief situation!  He’s used to taking an inning to get into a rhythm… What’s the point of building this game up for Sabathia if he goes less then an inning?... He’s gonna need to answer a lot of questions.”  But by the game’s end it was clear that Girardi was not the one that will need to answer the most questions about this loss. 

The Yankees had the best lineup in baseball.  Brett Gardner is the only player in last night’s starting order to never appear in an all-star game… and he performed better then anyone during this ALDS.  New York had the 2, 3, and 4 hitters at the plate in the bottom of the ninth; you can’t ask for anything better.  It is inexcusable for the Yankees to produce 2 runs, on just 1 RBI hit, with their season on the line.  They have been in the postseason 14 of 15 years.  The goal is not to make it to the playoffs, it’s to go to the World Series.  Us Yankee fans are certainly spoiled, but this season is a failure. 

As for their same-citied group of frustration and failure, the Jets have me thinking a double digit, or even a winning season is slipping away.  It’s only week 4!  What are you saying!

The Jets should be 1-3.  They should be thanking whatever it is that they thank that Tony Romo is more of a knucklehead (Barkley intonation) than the Sanchize. 

Although they have seen some lofty numbers put up against them, I really think this defensive unit will be as good, if not better then in previous years.  Wilkerson has looked good during the first 4 games of his rookie year.  The pass rush has been fantastic.  The struggles of Nnamdi in Oakland has cemented what all Jets fans have known for years; Revis is miles ahead of the next best cornerback.  Their performance in the Sunday Night Two-Girls-One-Cup Vom-Fest against Baltimore was perhaps the best the defense has played ever. 

Of course, that game also showed that the Jets are in some major trouble offensively.  Mangold’s absence cannot excuse everything we saw. 

The last 2 games have proved that the Jets offense is as predictable as Robert California’s response to everything.  How many times have we seen this?

First Down: Play action, bootleg right, over the head of a slant-right Dustin Keller

(Ugh, we can’t run it now; it’s second and long.  What can we call that Sanchez can handle, the simple roll out has already failed. )

Second Down: Wide receiver screen!  Deflected at line/Holmes side steps past corner and engulfed immediately by nickelback or safety. 

(Okay, third and 8.  How do we pick up 8 yards?)   

Third Down: Six yard pattern! 

I honestly don’t see from where this offense will come.  Sanchez looks downright terrible.  He steps too far into his line to avoid the pass rush.  The only thing he does more then overthrow receivers is throw the ball at their feet.  He still has no clue how to protect the football. 

The running game is horrendous.  They are currently number 30 in the league for total yards and yards/attempt.  30! They’ve rushed it the 28^th most times.  28^th!    Shonn Green is struggling, LT is worse. 

Panic mode is at it’s all time high for the Rex Ryan era.  They have New England this week and I don’t know how they can pull it off.  Belichick knows all about this struggling offense and it’s predictability.  The Jets are in trouble in this division. 

It’s like I always said about the Monday Night Football theme song: Unless someone ignorantly and convolutedly compares the president of the United States to Adolf Hitler, I don’t see a way this will ever change. 

-AW

NFL Preview (That Article Everyone Does)

As great as sports are, in the scheme of life there are many things whose importance goes far beyond which team and players come out on top in a game. In the scheme of life, a NFL lockout would have been the absolute worst thing. Doom seemed so imminent just a few weeks ago that I had already begun to form a list of new ways I could spend my weekend (and basically entire week). But, alas, an agreement was finally reached (let’s just be happy that Chris Johnson wasn’t in charge of ANYTHING). Still, a little part of me was excited for doing some more diverse activities.

I open this column with, of all teams, the Detroit Lions. Coming into this season there’s positive buzz surrounding them for the first time since, well, since I don’t even know when. Thank God the lockout is over because the Detroit Lions will reach 8 wins.

6, 2, 0, 7, 3, 5, 6, 5, 3. Those are the number of wins the Lions have had over the last 9 seasons. That’s terrible. Someone needs to take their games off TV, oh, wait… The time for excuses is over. They have been bad for so long that it is almost hard to believe they haven’t changed their name to the Detroit Busts. Honestly, this team’s failure is almost as embarrassing as the number of times I’ve listened to Take Over Control in the past week.

This season will be different because they have something they’ve never had: talent. Suh is going to be in the Defensive Player of the Year discussion and has already landed an all-pro selection in just one season. Once Fairly returns from his injury the Lions will have perhaps the best inside defensive line in football. Stafford has demonstrated that when healthy he’s a promising young quarterback. 2011 is a critical season in the progress of several quarterbacks who most either step up into a new role or become the stars they were expected to be on their draft day. Here are the top 5 I-No-Longer-Have-Any-Excuses-For-Playing-Below-The-Level-I-Need-To-Be-At-Quarterbacks:

5. Kevin Kolb – Kolb probably has had the most legitimate reason to never truly perform as he’s backed up McNabb and Vick over the last few years. Last year he played decently in his limited role, but to no fault of his own, can’t compete with the circus of Michael Vick. Now he’s got his own team and perhaps the most talented wide out in the NFL. NO EXCUSES. NONE.

4. Jay Cutler – Romo to the next level. When you have the physical ability to throw the ball into the stands off your back foot falling backwards, you need to win playoff games.

3. Matt Stafford – He’s got the weapons to be effective and his team finally believes they can win.
“Like I said before, we can go 16-0,” Suh told the Detroit News today. “One of the reasons I’m saying this is because we should shoot for the top. And if you don’t want to be a Super Bowl team, what are you playing for? If you are satisfied with winning games and just making the playoffs, I think you should expect more. There is more to just playing and trying to win games. That is my mentality and that is my approach. We should come in with the attitude of the sky is the limit and we want to be the best.”

2. Tony Romo – He’s a veteran by now and the whole Jessica Simpson, giggly Romo needs to evaporate. You were injured, now you’re better. You had a imbecile coaching you, now you’re better.

1. Mark Sanchez – You knew it was coming. He’s got the best supporting cast on offense, defense, and special teams of any quarterback in football and doesn’t even have the responsibility of heading a throw-first offense. I still believe in him, but if he fails to be MORE than a “game manager” in 2011 that confidence will change more dramatically and suddenly then J-Wow’s improved boob-job (but in this case for the worse).
Anyways, the Lions will get to .500. Lot’s of people might be calling this but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen.

Now, on the off chance that football failed to exist in 2011, I was already taking some precautions and trying to come up with various alternatives to inducing atrophy every Sunday on my couch. Well, thank God the lockout is over because I don’t need to Play Fantasy Fantasy Football.

Play Fantasy Fantasy football and feel like you control not just a football team, but also the entire league. Not only is your team fake, so are the stats. Playing PPR Fantasy Fantasy Football is easy: draft your team, make up your stats, get paper! May the most imaginative and pathetic owner win!

While the past several years have seen AFC domination (7 of last 11 Super Bowls, winning inter-conference play ever year since 2004 with the exception of a tie in 2007) this year will mark a shift and we will begin to see the NFC talent exceed that of the AFC. What makes me say this, well, for one, thank God the Lockout is over because the NFC West will have a 10 win team.
Gulp. It has to happen, right? Sure, those 10 wins are THREE more than the division winner snagged last season, but look at it this way, the Rams and Cardinals have made some significant improvement over how they began their 2010 campaigns. Bradford came into his own last year and really surprised me with an outstanding rookie season. In a move that has been very much under the radar, Mike Sims-Walker is now one of the young quarterback’s weapons, coming over from Jacksonville this past offseason. As for the Cardinals, I mentioned before that this season must be a good one for Kevin Kolb, who is finally the unquestioned starter. Although this team has been consistently mediocre throughout the last several regular seasons, their success in the playoffs should give them confidence to claim the west this year. But, hey, who knows, maybe the Seahawks or 49ers pull it out. Someone HAS to step up and my prediction is that it will be the Cardinals.

On the other hand…

Thank God the Lockout ended because the AFC South will be the NFL’s weakest division. The NFC West is passing a torch that has stayed with them for what feels like a century. The AFC South carries the burden now, which is due to several points, the first and most obvious being the injury to Peyton Manning. Without Manning the Colts are nothing; write them off for 5 wins at best.

Actually, maybe they should just give Manning a year off. Let Curtis Painter or Kerry Collins lead this conglomeration of parasitic mediocrity to one of the worst records in football and then rebuild a bit through next year’s draft because, let’s face it, this team hasn’t added an upgrade since the last time they downloaded the new Caldwell back in March. Obviously, though, this strategy is a “glitch” in the system that the newest model of Caldwell cannot understand nor carry out. A 90% Manning cannot salvage this team and I’m not sure he’s going to be capable of giving even that much. This means that for only the third time in the last 7 years, someone else can challenge Indianapolis for the division title. It’s too bad THIS and THIS were the highlights of the rest of the division’s 2010 season.

Houston Texans – Talented, yes, but from the Sage Rosenfels HELICOPTER FUMBLE in 2008, to the Santonio Holmes catch with 10 seconds left to beat them last year, to Foster’s injury and his subsequent tweet (I am actually using twitter these days @Late_Nightt), it is clear that not only is Houston proficient at blowing games/seasons, they can also do it with incredible variety. I picked them to make the playoffs in years past, but didn’t last year and will not again anytime soon.

Jacksonville Jaguars – Fat quarterbacks rarely win. Neither does Jack Del Rio. Fat quarterbacks are shockingly released. So is Jack Del Rio???

Tennessee Titans – It’s only a matter of time before C.J. pulls a hamstring a la Darrelle Revis.

Maybe a lockout would have done some good, you know, let all us football crazies appreciate the beautiful things that autumn offers. Err, never mind. Thank God the Lockout is over because I don’t need to buy THIS COOKBOOK

Autumn offers many fresh, delicious, and seasonal foods. Any fall that is highlighted with Plum Good Breakfast Oatmeal, Savory Baked Pears, and Raisin-Cranberry Compote is one in which I would love to take part. In fact, the only thing more delightful then whipping up some delicious fall treats is being able to cook them along side Paula Deen on her hit Sunday television program, 65 Other Uses for Butter.

While the beginning of this article has been highlighted by change, there’s also quite a bit that will stay the same as previous seasons. Thank God the lockout is over because the NFC South will remain as it was last year.

In 2010 the NFC South emerged as one of the league’s top divisions, with Atlanta snagging 13 wins, the Saints claiming 11, and the surprising Tampa Bay Bucs winning 10 games. Pathetic Carolina rounded out the division with fourteen loses. The essential parts of the NFC South teams have remained the same, but expect to see even further development from Matt Ryan who is ready for his break out season. The Saints might have lost Reggie Bush, but let’s face it, Bush’s moments of greatness have unfortunately been few and far between over the past three years. Darren Sproles is a viable replacement. This leaves the Bucs, who will probably win two less games this season then a year ago. Each year there’s a surprise team that plays beyond their talent only to lose a few more games the following season. Teams have been given more then ample time to recognize that the Bucs have talent and will plan accordingly. Their success won’t be a surprise for anyone anymore.

As for the Panthers, they should have traded their pick and selected a player like Marcell Dareus, Patrick Peterson, Aldon Smith, Tyrone Smith a few selections later and snagged a veteran or additional draft pick in the process. What does it tell you when every other day leading up to the draft there is a new number one? It means this year’s rookie class is a bit unknown, possibly sub-par. Carolina has many spots needing improvement and a better draft strategy could have further amended this situation. Instead, I think they felt the pressure of a player like Cam Newton sitting, waiting for them. Nonetheless, Newton should be able to get the team a few more wins.

Let’s pause here to address a burning question of mine. Is there a team right now, or ever, with a stranger group of quarterbacks then the Carolina Panthers? This unit is truly one of a kind. Heading the depth chart is obviously Cam Newton, their number one pick and first selection overall. The number two man is their second round draft pick from just a year ago, Jimmy Clausen who some predicted to go in the first round. You’d think they envisioned him being a starter; why else would they draft him so early? Now here’s where it get’s really interesting, their number three guy is Derek Anderson, who played in, of all things, a Pro Bowl in 2007! Rounding out the bottom is Tony Pike who was also drafted in, yeah, you guessed it, 2010! All four quarterbacks were added to the team within the last year and, with the exception of Pike (maybe), you would think the Carolina management envisioned them all to be the starter. Some teams hold onto their rotten QB corps, but the Panther’s relegate them faster then you can say, “Jake Delhomme.”

The 2010 postseason was blessed with dual, divisional-divisional matchups in the AFC (Jets vs. Pats, Ravens vs. Steelers). The reason for this rare situation is, quite simply, they are the four best AFC teams. Thank God the Lockout ended because there are only 4 legitimate AFC teams (and they’re in just 2 divisions).

If anybody other than the Patriots, Jets, Steelers, or Ravens represents the AFC in the super bowl, that team would have needed to make an improbable title game run. Even if the conference championship game includes a team not on this short list I’d be shocked (just for the hell of it, if the divisional round isn’t a rematch of last year I’ll scratch my head). These four squads are complete in every sense of the word. The Jets, Steelers, are Ravens have the three best defenses in football and highly talented offensive units to match. New England boasts on of the most potent offenses in the league and although their D was a bit shaky at times in 2010, if they can improve their pass defense they will be a respectable unit.

There is really no opposition. Some might point out teams like the Colts, Chargers, or even Chiefs as threats to the big four, but are we really putting faith in either: (A.) a team whose entire success depends on one player with a bad neck, (B.) the most underachieving team of the decade, and/or (C.) the Chiefs(!) who’s success is largely based on the degree to which team B continues to fall short of their potential.

Fantasy football is great because rookie running backs get an immediate shot at superstardom (at least in the eyes of fantasy owners). Of course, once these overrated newbie’s don’t play like a top 20 overall pick, they’re dead to their owners. Hated. A season ruin-er. Scrub. Itchbay. Well, I was one of those bitter owners and the source of my frustration was directed at Ryan Matthews (although Foster and Peterson turned out to be a more than fine RB duo), but I am willing to give him a second chance (not on my fantasy team of course). Thank God the lock out ended because Ryan Matthews is the most important player in the AFC West.

I just said that the Chargers are not one the AFC’s legitimate super bowl contenders, but that’s not a shot at their talent. San Diego is a very talented team but they just can’t seem to get it together for 20 games, 16 games, 10 games. It is truly a mystery, but one clue to their mediocrity must be attributed to their inconsistent running game. Rivers is a fine quarterback and will probably be in the MVP discussion again, but even in a pass-first offense, running back play is critical. Back in the days of Tomlinson, Sproles, and Turner (the closest they got to a Super Bowl), screens and draws were huge for them. Over River’s first three years, Tomlinson averaged 56 receptions per season, far more than Matthews’ 22 catches in 2010. Nobody is expecting Matthews to be the next L.T. But, if he can muster up 1050 rushing yards, another 350 or so receiving, and 10 total scores, San Diego might be ready to advance to the best of the AFC. Rivers threw the ball 541 times last season (7th most) and completed 66% (3rd best). These statistics speak to River’s intelligence as a quarterback, but imagine how much more accurate and threatening he could be by throwing the ball 50-75 fewer times. The ability to reduce his throws rests on the success of Matthews.

An interesting way to separate the good teams from the bad teams is to look at total pass attempts. Even in the modern, pass-happy NFL, there needs to be a blend. Take a look.

Top 10 Pass Attempts of 2010:
1. Peyton Manning
2. Drew Brees
3. Sam Bradford
4. Carson Palmer
5. Matt Schaub
6. Matt Ryan
7. Philip Rivers
8. Eli Manning
9. Mark Sanchez
10. Kyle Orton
=4 Playoff teams

11-20 Pass Attempts of 2010:
11. Tom Brady
12. Chad Henne
13. Joe Flacco
14. Aaron Rodgers
15. Josh Freeman
16. Donovan McNabb
17. Matt Cassel
18. Matt Hasslebeck
19. Ryan Fitzpatrick
20. Jay Cutler
*** #’s 22 and 23 represent Ben Roethlisberger and Michael Vick, both of whom missed games and would have most likely ended up in this 11-20 range
=6 Playoff teams (plus 2 more from Roethlisberger and Vick), MVP, Super Bowl MVP

What does this teach us? Somewhat counterintuitively, if Rivers throws the ball less, chances are he will be a better quarterback and so will his team.

Speaking of winning, we are all winners because we have football! Thank God the lockout is over because I don’t need to watch Dancing with the Stars.

Why is the sports world so obsessed with this mind-numbingly banal show? In the event of a lockout, they might have just started airing episodes on ABC affiliate, ESPN. Is it just because a bunch of retired athletes participate? There are way more interesting retirement stories to follow ranging from Lawrence Taylor’s inability to stay out of court for more than 3 consecutive years, Tiki Barber’s passive-aggressive hostility and regret, and Shaq’s transition into a world where he can no longer throw his 350 pound ass into everybody’s hips. Also, watching paint peel of an old barn would be more entertaining. Seriously.

So it’s now the part of the article where I make the Super Bowl predictions. Thank God the lockout ended because the Packers will repeat as Super Bowl champs, while going undefeated!

The Green Bay Packers will repeat as Super Bowl champions because they have one the best quarterbacks in football and 2012 MVP, a good group of receivers including the “old” Donald Driver who can still do things like THIS, most of their team from last year, an entire halfback corps of one-syllable last name runners, (tell me the last time that happening), inclement weather, B.J. Raji, Clay Matthews, Charles Woodson, Nick Collins, and A.J. Hawk on defense, DEXTER MORGAN for a punter, and the best fans in the world.

I am predicting an undefeated season because they can do it. Several things need to happen in order for a team to go undefeated. First of all, they need to be not just great, but a team of the decade, which in today’s NFL translates into a potent pass attack, a consistent and safe running game, and a 3-4 defense with a dominating outside linebacker (Matthews), smart, not flashy, linebackers who can tackle consistently (Hawk), and one or two dangerous playmakers in the secondary (Collins, Woodson).

An undefeated team also needs a relatively weak schedule because it’s just the nature of the game for a coach and team to get caught up looking ahead at all their challenging matchups before their current ones, resulting in losing some winnable games. Obviously a tough schedule also just means more chances to get beaten, but there are only four games that I foresee as even making it into that loose category: week 1 against the Saints, week 5 in Atlanta, week 7 at Minnesota, and week 9 at San Diego. Of those, Atlanta is their only true test. Mike McCarthy’s gonna have the Packers ready for their home opener, we don’t have any idea what McNabb will do in Minnesota, and the San Diego game is only week 9 so Rivers and Co. are still a week or two away from hitting their We-Are-The-Best-Team-In-Football-And-You-Don’t-Want-To-See-Us-Ever end of season explosion (additionally the Packers will be coming off their bye).

And the last, and often most important part of an undefeated quest, is having a reason to play weeks 15, 16, and 17. When you figure that the Packers are a pretty classy organization I doubt they would pull an Indianapolis and shit the bed with weeks to go. Also working in their favor are the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles will be raking in the W’s as well and although the two never play each other, it will probably take the Packers through week 16 to clinch home field throughout. If they have already clinched the division by the start of their 15th game, you have to assume they’re not going to throw the achievement away against the Bears or Lions!

As for the AFC, who will they be sending to the Super Bowl? Thank God the lockout ended because the Jets will lose in the Super Bowl.

Is this pick based on bias? No. Is this pick based on football knowledge? Well, not really. Is this pick based on strength of schedule? No. Is this pick based on the talented defense? No. Is this pick based on the 19 returning starters? No. Is this pick based on what Rex Ryan tells me to think? No. Is this pick meant to jinx, or double jinx them? No, no, and no. This is a pick based on nothing more then a twenty-year trend. Starting in 1990, each new decade has been marked my perpetual late-playoff failures. The Buffalo Bills lost four consecutive Super Bowls (nothing quite touches the pain of Bills fans, as is usually the case). The new millennium began with the Philadelphia Eagles losing three straight conference championship games (01-03) and then the Super Bowl the next year. And now, here we are, 10 years later with another team poised to collapse at the very end for no other reason then fate. That’s it. That is my reasoning and this early in the season it’s as good a reason as any. It’s way too early to try to predict anything.

National Football Conference

NFC EAST
y-Philadelphia 13-3
Dallas 9-7
NY Giants 9-7
Washington 5-11

NFC NORTH
z- Green Bay 16-0
x- Minnesota 10-6
Detroit 8-8
Chicago 5-11

NFC SOUTH
y- Atlanta 12-4
x- New Orleans 11-5
Tampa Bay 7-9
Carolina 4-12

NFC WEST
y- Arizona 10-6
St. Louis 9-7
Seattle 6-10
San Francisco 3-13

American Football Conference

AFC EAST
y- New England 13-3
x-NY Jets 12-4
Miami 7-9
Buffalo 4-12

AFC NORTH
z- Pittsburgh 14-2
x- Baltimore 12-4
Cincinnati 5-11
Cleveland 3-13

AFC SOUTH
y- Indianapolis 9-7
Houston 7-9
Tennessee 5-11
Jacksonville 5-11

AFC WEST
y- San Diego 10-6
Kansas City 8-8
Oakland 8-8
Denver 4-12

NFC Playoffs

Wild Card Round
MIN vs. ATL, ATL
NO vs. ARZ, NO

Divisional Round
NO vs. GB, GB
ATL vs. PHI, ATL

Conference Champ.
ATL vs. GB, GB

AFC Playoffs

Wild Card Round
NYJ vs. SD, NYJ
BAL vs. IND, BAL

Divisional Round
NYJ vs. PIT, NYJ
BAL vs. NE, NE

Conference Champ.
NYJ vs. NE, NYJ

Super Bowl

NYJ vs. GB, Green Bay Packers

-AW

Plans for the Immediate Future

I will be taking a hiatus from sports writing in order to concentrate on a fiction-piece that is currently 30 pages long. In the meantime, feel free to read and reread all my previous articles. There is tremendous symbolism to be found throughout that simply 1 run-through will not reveal.

-AW

Super Bowl Prediction

Inevitably, there was going to come a time where I could get beyond the Jets loss to Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship game. I’m not about to say that time has come yet, but it will. Hopefully. I still can’t watch more than 5 minutes of super bowl coverage or read an ESPN football article, which for me is the equivalent of Mel Kiper Jr. going the same period of time without a comb. Writing this article forces me to confront something that I have no interest in confronting. Nonetheless…

The Jay-Cutler-MJD-Angry-Media-Injury-Faking-Team-Quitting Issue is focusing on the wrong matter. Now, I don’t know whether Jay Cutler could have played the second half of that game or not. I’m not a professional football player nor a medical doctor so I’m in no position to say what Cutler should have done given his play or lack there of. I have a bigger problem with Cutler’s body language. If he was injured enough to not play, that’s fine, but he was healthy enough to at least encourage his teammates. What type of message does it send when Cutler waits on the side of the bench, head down, while the other 45 players on the team are strategizing, playing, and attempting to handle the void that their starting quarterback left when he departed from play. I mean, they were down to their third stringer, Caleb Hanie, and literally had nobody left on the depth chart. If Hanie went down, the Bears would have been running the wildcat for the duration. But I guess that’s just the type of player Cutler is. We’ve seen this before. “I’m not happy and everyone else can go to hell.” Quarterbacks should be tough. Quarterbacks must be leaders.

Way back in September, the Packers were my pre-season pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl (I also predicted the Jets would lose in the AFC championship game, but that doesn’t fill me with the same level of fondness). Green Bay has looked like the best team in the NFC for a significant portion of the season, but somehow managed to nearly miss the playoffs. They are a 2 ½ point favorite, which is shocking considering they are a 6 seed. If the Packers want to win, here’s 3 ways they can do it:

Exploit Pittsburgh’s Unimpressive Cornerbacks
Ike Taylor and Bryant McFadden should never, ever be confused for overly skilled corners. They’re not. In fact, I think they are often downright terrible. But, they have quite a bit going for them. The newly appointed defensive player of the year plays behind them and an ex-defensive player of the year does the same in front of them. This is along with the most talented group of linebackers this league has seen in some time. Meanwhile, Driver, Jennings, and the rest of the Green Bay wide receivers are very consistent and often underrated. They should be able to thrive against the most mediocre area of an otherwise supreme defense. I think we’re going to see a lot of 15 yard curl routes from Green Bay, much like they did against the Bears in the NFC title game. This would limit Polamalu’s impact and put most of the coverage responsibilities on the corners. This is truly the must critical part of Green Bay’s game plan. Without a combined total of at least 150 yards from Driver and Jennings, I just cannot see them winning. This said, I believe the two will eclipse that benchmark.

Don’t Try to Sack Roethlisberger
That does not mean they should drop everyone in coverage. Pressure is terrific and expect Clay Matthews (who barely lost to Polamalu in the DPOY voting) to be very much in Big Ben’s face. However, the key is containment. The Steelers have a very susceptible offensive line, especially without pro-bowl center, Maurkice Pouncey. Green Bay will be able to penetrate the offensive line with relative ease, but they must remain disciplined. If they crash inside to early and try to sack Ben, he has a better chance to escape and make a typical throw-him-down-duck-under-him-roll-right-roll-left-roll-right-again-and-hit-the-receiver-in-the-middle-of-the-field-and-walk-away-with-a-broken-bloody-face type play. Green Bay must stay on the edge of the pocket with its rushers and not collapse in until the absolute last moment.

Make it a Shootout
I cannot see Green Bay winning this game without eclipsing the 28-point mark. Roethlisberger and the rest of this team are too good in low scoring grudge matches. We saw a perfect example of this in their 13-10 victory against the Ravens on Monday Night in early December. If Green Bay plays sloppy offensively and tries to win the game with their defense, Big Ben will make 1 big play on the final drive to win it for the Steelers. Whether that play is a 10-yard scramble, a deep bomb to Mike Wallace, or this crazy play, with the game on the line there may be nobody better than Big Ben. Green Bay has to start scoring early and often with the ultimate goal of not giving the Steelers the opportunity to win it on the last drive.

There are 2 great teams playing for the Super Bowl and I anticipate a highly competitive, high scoring affair. Rodgers is a fantastic quarterback but has not faced a defense like that of the Steelers all season and certainly not a unit even close to it this postseason. My heart says the Packers but my brain says the Steelers. I’m going with the brain. Steelers will walk away with yet their 7th Super Bowl title, winning a great one over the favored Packers by a score of 38-33.

-AW

What We Learned from the New York Victory

For a week (and really two weeks) the Jets pummeled New England with exclamatory statements, bold predictions, tongue in cheek comments, and so much “Bulletin board material” that Belichick probably ordered the construction of 5 new ones for the facility. A loss would have been Armageddon for everyone associated in any way, shape, or form with the franchise. It wasn’t so much that they won that surprised me, but rather, how they won.

Questionable Coaching Decision 1: The Benching of Wes Welker
Let’s go back to the early parts of the season. Braylon Edwards was pulled over for a DUI but, to the displeasure of many, received no team-sanctioned punishment for his off field behavior. I argued then that the Jets had the right to do whatever they pleased with him. Few, if any, teams would have given Edwards a suspension for his behavior. Instead, I believed that other organizations would adopt the famous “bench-him-for-a-series-to-prove-a-point-to-the-media” strategy.

Granted, Welker’s off field incident (making suggestive comments against Rex Ryan) were not as severe as Edwards’, but Belichick handed down a confusing punishment. He benched Welker for the first offensive series, although he did allow his player to return to first punt of the game. Excuse me? Did anyone watching the game last night believe for even an instant that Welker would be benched for a significant amount of time? No, of course not. He was making a statement: The Jets are brash and disrespectful and the Patriots are not. We will bench our star wide out for a minor incident and you know what? We’ll still beat you and we’ll do it with class.

Or so he thought. The Welker-less drive ended with a Brady pick. I’m sure if he had the chance to do it again Belichick would have left the usually well-behaved Welker on the field. I guess some of that New York talking rattled the Pats after all.

Questionable Coaching Decision 2: Fake Punt?
When I watched this live my first thought was that there was simply a poor snap. Pat Chung, the up-man and recipient of the snap, bobbled the ball when it hit him. I mean, why in the world would a team call a fake punt in their own territory, down by 4, with a minute and change left in a half? Upon review, however, it became obvious; this was a designed play. So why did Belichick call this one?

Following the game various players, namely the punter, suggested that it was actually Chung who made the decision and furthermore, that he had the go ahead to do so. Do you mean to tell me that a 23 year old, second-year SAFETY has the ability to singlehandedly decide to audible on an offensive play in a critical end-of-half playoff game? On second thought, I think I could better understand the decision if Belichick made it himself rather than leave it up to a guy participating in his second ever playoff game. Could it be that Chung wanted to psych out those cocky a-holes from New Jersey? Just saying. He must be one of those guys who go for it on 4th and 27 in Madden.

(Un)Disputed Realization: Rex Ryan is the PERFECT Jets head coach
How do you handle a team littered with a who’s who list of ex-superstars, hot-headed receivers, cocky defensive backs, angry linebackers, and criticized young players? Easy. Be the biggest force in the room and allow them to be all of those things they truly are. While some coaches limit their players’ media interactions and tenacity, Ryan encourages it, putting no shackles on potentially outrageous claims. He is perhaps the supreme example of a “player’s coach” as his name simultaneously continues to be included among the NFL’s greatest strategic minds. The 28-14(+7 prevent points) dominating victory was a culmination of these things. Ryan outcoached Belichick, using defensive backs as pass rushers and linemen as coverage personnel. Brady was sacked 5 times despite facing more than 4 pass-rushers on few occasions. The secondary utilized a balanced dose of man and zone coverage, often with one safety in the box and another deep. It takes a confident coach to abandon his first instinct (send the house) and go with a new, judicious decision (8 in coverage). While his past teams have won games sending 7 pass rushers from 7 different directions, this current one is hoping to win a Super Bowl utilizing a more conservative approach. Ryan has his entire team believing it will.

What Does this Win Mean for the AFC East Balance of Power?
At the moment, both teams would have legitimate arguments to this question. The Jets would argue that they are now 4-2 against the Patriots over the last 6 games and Sunday’s victory obviously trumps them all. This is now the second year in a row that the Jets have advanced further through the post season than their Boston rivals. However, the Patriots won the division and continue to exhibit regular season dominance. But I think the real reason Pats fans should feel confident about their chances next season is that they will have 2 first and second round picks in the upcoming draft. For years the team has been stockpiling picks and its seems this upcoming draft day will be the culmination of all that wheeling and dealing. I think the answer to this question truly comes down to whether or not the Jets can advance to the Super Bowl. If they win it all the argument is over. They are the team to beat in the NFL, the AFC, and the AFC East.

What Would a Win in Pittsburgh Mean?
When their Sunday evening game with the Pittsburg Steelers concludes, the New York Jets will have played against the 3 teams that have represented the AFC in the Super Bowl a combined 9 times since 2001 (the Raiders were the only other AFC team to make the big game). Rex Ryan has proclaimed since the preseason that the Jets are going to win the Super Bowl. It is fitting that in order to do that his team must defeat the 3 best teams of the last decade. There can be no argument against the Jets as a truly deserving championship team if they can advance through this murder’s row that has been created for them.

Crazy Stat:
The Jets are now 13-1 this season in games in which they have scored a touchdown.

Championship Game Predictions:
In my preseason playoff article (http://adamweinberger.blogspot.com/2010/09/playoff-predictions.html), I predicted the final 4 teams would be the Jets, Colts, Saints, and Packers, with the Colts and Pack advancing to the Super Bowl.

I always try to separate my bias from reality and I think I do it pretty well. From my perspective, the Patriots were the biggest threat the Jets would face in their pursuit of a title. In fact, after they defeated the Colts a week ago I proclaimed: “If the Jets beat New England, they will win the Super Bowl.” Well, they beat New England. I hope the Jets will enter their game against Pittsburg knowing that the regular season game is meaningless, which they essentially proved Sunday night against the Pats. If they want to win again they cannot feel overly confident and take this team lightly. New York has been to the championship game 2 years in a row now. They will learn from their mistakes and I truly believe they want it more than anyone else left in the tournament. The Jets will win it 20-17.

Over now to the NFC, the game features another 2 vs. 6 matchup. I have believed that the Packers are the NFC’s best for most of the season and there is no reason for me to think otherwise now. The Bears are yet to have a real playoff game and despite their recent victories, I still refuse to accept them as a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 10 touchdowns and nearly 1,000 yards in 3 playoff games and he leads a Green Bay attack that should be able to make relatively easy work of Chicago. I like the Packers to advance to the Super Bowl winning 35-24, setting up a never before 6 seed vs. 6 seed Super Bowl in Dallas.

-AW

To view this article in its original content go to http://www.hotboxsports.com/article/2011/1/What-We-Learned-from-the-New-York-Victory

A Look Back to My Preseason Picks

A wise man once said, “It takes a tough man to make a tender forecast.”

Anybody can make preseason predictions. It’s fun and easy. You can say whatever you want and there’s essentially nobody that can really question you because every argument ends in, “Well, I guess we’ll just have to see what happens.” Well, we have seen what happened, thus, let it continue.

Back in September I gave 2 different lengthy columns detailing my predictions for both the AFC and NFC. Some of those came out great while others were… well… lets just take a look.

NFC EAST

Dallas Cowboys
What I thought: 10-6, first in division, 3 seed
What they did: 6-10, third in division
What I said: “Romo seems to be improving after putting up career high numbers last season…they will need to improve on a pass defense that ranked 20th in the league last season.” – He didn’t (poor start, season ending injury in week 7) and they didn’t (dropped to 26th).
Season high point: Saying goodbye to Wade Phillips
Season low point: Saying goodbye to Wade Phillips’s face.

New York Giants
What I thought: 9-7, second in division, 6 seed
What they did: 10-6, second in division
What I said: “Hopefully their injuries from last season will be a thing of the past.”– Even more so than last year, the Giants were ravaged by injuries to key men on both sides of the field, which ultimately eliminated any shot at playoff contention.
Season high point: The banter at the O’Hara Thanksgiving dinner.
Season low point: Signing Matt Dodge.

Philadelphia Eagles
What I thought: 8-8, third in division
What they did: 10-6, first in division, 3 seed
What I said: “The Eagles have numerous question marks, most significantly with LeSean McCoy at Running Back and Kevin Kolb at QB.” – Rather than questions marks at the two positions, Phili had exclamation points. Vick emerged ahead of Kolb and produced a season worthy of second in MVP voting while McCoy looks like the next Brian Westbrook.
Season high point: Kevin Kolb’s week 1 injury.
Season low point: Mike Vicks’s week 4 injury.

Washington Redskins
What I thought: 7-9, fourth in division
What they did: 6-10, fourth in division
What I said: “Can Donovan McNabb revitalize his career in Washington? I think not… Will Albert Haynesworth learn to play nice with coach, Mike Shanahan, and perform like his days in Tennessee? Again, I think not.” – Let’s just call that an Überbingo.
Season high point: Consecutive wins against the Eagles and Packers.
Season low point: Seeing Rex Grossman play quarterback.

NFC WEST

San Francisco 49ers
What I thought: 10-6, first in division, 4 seed
What they did: 6-10, third in division
What I said: “Perhaps I’m delusional, but I believe Alex Smith will have a pretty good year in 2010.” – Perhaps? Really?
Season high point: Remaining in the playoff hunt until week 16.
Season low point: No more notable Singletary soliloquies.

Arizona Cardinals
What I thought: 6 – 10, second in division
What they did: 5-11, fourth in division
What I said: “Goodbye Kurt Warner, goodbye post-season.” – Apologies to Larry Fitzgerald.
Season High Point: Tie! Remaining in the playoff hunt until week 15 and THIS
Season Low Point: Going winless from October 11 to December 11.

Seattle Seahawks
What I thought: 6 – 10, third in division
What they did: 7-9, first in division, 4 seed
What I said: “Honestly, Seattle, who the hell knows what you’re going to do this season?” – Who could have possibly said, “Win the division with a 7-9 record!”
Season high point: Remaining in the playoff hunt until wildcard weekend.
Season low point: Heading a division with an overall point differential of -322 (This is the worst ever by a 4 team division. Numbers 2-4 on that all time list? NFC West, NFC West, NFC West).

St. Louis Rams
What I thought: 3 – 13, last in division
What they did: 7-9, second in division
What I said: “On the Brightside, St. Louis gets to play Seattle and Arizona twice.” – They went 2-2 but 3-1 would have made them playoff bound.
Season high point: Remaining in the playoff hunt until week 17.
Season low point: Losing to Seattle in week 17.

NFC NORTH

Green Bay Packers
What I thought: 12-4, first in division, 1 seed
What they did: 10-6, second in division, 6 seed
What I said: “The Green Bay Packers will be the best team in the NFC in 2010… Anything less than a deep playoff run from this team should be viewed as a disappointment.” – Remains to be seen how far they will go, but they certainly showed moments of dominance.
Season high point: Going into Minnesota and defeating the Favre-led Vikings 31–3.
Season low point: 3 of 6 losses to teams with sub-500 records.

Minnesota Vikings
What I thought: 10-6, second in division, 5 seed
What they did: 6-10, fourth in division
What I said: “I expect Favre to suffer an injury at some point this season, most likely from some 300-pound freak, rushing from his blind side and sacking Favre hard enough to end his days as a professional quarterback.” – The only thing I got wrong was the weight of the “freak.” Arthur Moats is 250 pounds, not 300.
Season high point: Firing Brad Childress
Season low point: Starting a WR at QB.

Chicago Bears
What I thought: 6 – 10, third in division
What they did: 11-5, first in division, 2 seed
What I said: “Julius Peppers may have been the biggest free agent of the off-season, but his presence in Chicago is not enough to transform the Bears into a winning team.” – Julius Pepper may have been the biggest free agent of the off-season. His presence in Chicago is enough to transform the Bears into a winning team.
Season high point: Ending the debate over the most dangerous player in football
Season low point: “Cutler drops back, can’t find anyone, and is SACKED!” (X52).

Detroit Lions
What I thought: 5 – 11, fourth in division
What they did: 6-10, third in division
What I said: “Bringing up the rear for yet another year are the Detroit Lions. However, the defense will be improved after a solid draft.” – Rookie Defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh will be a top 5 defensive player by next season’s end.
Season high point: Finishing outside of the 4 spot.
Season low point: Yet another losing season.

NFC SOUTH

New Orleans Saints
What I thought: 12 – 4, first in division, 2 seed
What they did: 11-5, second in division, 5 seed
What I said: “The only reason I can believe that the New Orleans Saints will struggle this season is the appearance of Drew Brees on the cover of Madden.” – He was miraculously able to defeat the curse… or at least so far.
Season high point: As a number 5 seed, being a 10 ½ point favorite in wildcard weekend.
Season low point: Losing by a combined 23 points to Arizona and Cleveland.

Atlanta Falcons
What I thought: 9 – 7, second in division
What they did: 13 – 3, first in division, 1 seed
What I said: “There are many signs that point to Atlanta competing for the division with New Orleans… there is Roddy White, who has quietly had 3 straight seasons of 80 plus catches and 1100 plus receiving yards… Atlanta is my dark horse to make some noise in the NFL this season.” – Roddy White won’t go quietly anymore. He has emerged as arguably the NFL’s best wide receiver.
Season high point: A new tradition
Season low point: I’m sure there was a Falcon who took a trip to the dentist.

Carolina Panthers
What I thought: 7 – 9, third in division
What they did: 2 – 14, fourth in division
What I said: “Jimmy Clausen, Matt Moore, and/or Tony Pike have no business starting at quarterback in the NFL this season, yet, one or more of them will.” – Add to that list Brian St. Pierre, and you can explain why they finished dead last in passing yards/game.
Season high point: Securing the number one overall pick with 31-10 shellacking in week 17.
Season low point: The season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
What I thought: 4 – 12, fourth in division
What they did: 10 – 6, third in division
What I said: “Anything more than 5 wins for the Bucs is a sign of the apocalypse.” – 2012 is rapidly approaching.
Season high point: Development of offensive stars Josh Freeman, LeGarrette Blount, Kellen Winslow, and Mike Williams.
Season low point: Watching the 7-9 Seahawks take their final playoff spot.

AFC EAST

New York Jets
What I thought: 10 – 6, first in division, 4 seed
What they did: 11-5, second in division, 6 seed
What I said: “When you add on Kyle Wilson, the newest first round pick of the Jets, this secondary has the ability to be more than great, they could be historically great.” – Wilson had been a major disappointment thus far (although corners often start of slow) and it’s a major reason why offenses are having success when they spread the Jets out.
Season high point: Starting the season 8-2.
Season low point: Take your pick from the following: sexual harassment charges against Ines Sainz, Braylon Edwards’ DUI, injury to Kris Jenkins or Jim Leonhard, the “Wall,” losing to New England 45-3 on MNF, or losing 3 of their last 5 games.

New England Patriots
What I thought: 10 – 6, second in division, 5 seed
What they did: 14 – 2, first in division, 1 seed
What I said: “The offense is composed of big uncertainties… As for the defense, I was actually surprised last season at how well the unit performed… Yet, Brady and Belichick are still leading the franchise, which goes a long way.” – In a “rebuilding” year, Brady but forth his best season of his career and reestablished New England as the elite NFL team once again.
Season high point: Scoring 30+ points in 9 straight games.
Season low point: The lack of barbers in the Boston area.

Miami Dolphins
What I thought: 9 – 7, third in division
What they did: 7 – 9, third in division
What I said: “Chad Henne is on the verge of a breakout year.” – This may have been the single wrongest aspect of all my predictions.
Season high point: Going 6 – 2 on the road.
Season low point: Going 1 – 7 on the road.

Buffalo Bills
What I thought: 4 – 12, fourth in division
What they did: 4 – 12, fourth in division
What I said: “The Bills have the most unjustly difficult schedule of any team in the NFL. They not only have to play 6 games against the other 3 teams in the division, but they also must play Green Bay, Minnesota, Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Pittsburg. Those are 11 possible losses right there.” – There were actually only 9.
Season high point: Finding a future quarterback (or at least I think they did).
Season low point: Falling to 3 different playoff teams in overtime.

AFC WEST

San Diego Chargers
What I thought: 11- 5, first division, 3 seed
What they did: 9 – 7, second in division
What I said: “I expect the San Diego Chargers to have another Charger-esque season.” – It looked to be like that for a stretch, but San Diego just couldn’t keep up with their injuries and mistakes.
Season high point: Having the first ranked past defense, fourth ranked rush defense, and second ranked pass attack.
Season low point: Having the first ranked past defense, fourth ranked rush defense, and second ranked pass attack, but failing to make the playoffs.

Oakland Raiders
What I thought: 8 – 8, second in division
What they did: 8 – 8, third in division
What I said: “Oakland with an 8-8 record may come as a shock to some.” – And it did.
Season high point: 8 wins!
Season low point: Lingering quarterback concerns yet again.

Denver Broncos
What I thought: 7 – 9, third in division
What they did: 4 – 12, fourth in division
What I said: “You have my least favorite head coach, Josh McDaniels, who always seems involved with some type of drama. Honestly, though, I flat out can’t stand him.” – Neither could anyone apparently.
Season high point: Freeing themselves with McDaniels.
Season low point: 4 wins.

Kansas City Chiefs
What I thought: 4 – 12, fourth in division
What they did: 10 – 6, first in division
What I said: “They do have some young talent on offense in Matt Cassel, Jamaal Charles, and Dwayne Bowe. I believe in 2 years they will be competing for the playoffs.” – Those 3 accelerated that playoff competition.
Season high point: Matching their highest win total since 2005
Season low point: Recording 2 division victories.

AFC NORTH

Baltimore Ravens
What I thought: 11 – 5, first in division, 2 seed
What they did: 12 – 4, second in division, 5 seed
What I said: “The Ravens have put themselves in a position to win a super bowl.” – No division title, but a super bowl win remains a strong possibility
Season high point: Suffering only 4 loses by a combined point total of 16 points and entering the postseason with the league’s second longest win streak.
Season low point: A persistent inability to fix Flacco’s ugliness.

Cincinnati Bengals
What I thought: 9 – 7, second in division
What they did: 4 – 12, fourth in division
What I said: “In 2010, I believe that once again the Bengals will be a good team, however, I expect them to fall a bit short of their 2009 accomplishment.” – By “fall a bit short” I mean, “Fly off a cliff 100 miles short.”
Season high point: They were 2 – 1 once.
Season low point: Earning my vote for worst team in the league.

Pittsburg Steelers
What I thought: 9 – 7, third in division
What they did: 12 – 4, first in division, 2 seed
What I said: “If Pittsburg can manage a 2-2 split over those first 4 games, then maybe they can reach the post season.” – Going 3 – 1 over that stretch secured their playoff spot.
Season high point: Sending Roethlisberger so far on the ugly scale he came back around to the attractive end.
Season low point: Going 2 – 4 against playoff teams.

Cleveland Browns
What I thought: 3 – 13, fourth in division
What they did: 5 – 11, third in division
What I said: “Their quarterbacks would be better served as the towel boys, the running backs are so poor that not a single one was drafted in my fantasy league, and their wide receivers were good enough last season to lead the team to dead last in passing offense. Their defense is tragic and head coach Eric Mangini is anything but qualified.” – Well at least Peyton Hillis proved me wrong.
Season High Point: With a record of 3 – 5, people actually thought they were good for the first time in I can’t even remember when.
Season Low Point: With a record of 5 – 11, people actually realized they were no good for first time in I can remember when.

AFC SOUTH

Indianapolis Colts
What I thought: 13 – 3, first in division, 1 seed
What they did: 10 – 6, first in division, 4 seed
What I said: “Manning is still one of the 3 best players in football and quite frankly, is the only one that matters on that team. Even if everyone else on the team got the flu, and they brought in the practice squad, I’d still take the Colts over half the teams in the league.” – Is that not exactly what happened?
Season high point: The calendar turning to 2011 marked the official release of the newest model of Caldwell, affectionately named Caldwell 3.0, the title being inspired by Caldwell’s incredible excitement and creativity. Previous models include the now outdated Caldwell and Caldwell 2.0. The Caldwell 3.0 has been called “less buggy” and “has better RAM” according to various users.
Season low point: Over a 3 game stretch, Manning threw 11 interceptions.

Tennessee Titans
What I thought: 9 – 7, second in division, 6 seed
What they did: 6 – 10, fourth in division
What I said: “Vince Young continues to prove that no matter what, regardless of his stats or anyone else’s, he is a proven winner. It’s usually never pretty, but the Titans can win games.” – Oh… about that…
Season high point: Suspension-free karma
Season low point: Managing to drive away a former R.O.Y. and probably doing the same for a great coach.

Houston Texans
What I thought: 8 – 8, third in division
What they did: 6 – 10, third in division
What I said: I’m including the entire thing since it was my favorite write up of any team. “This is the year the Texans make the playoffs… ok… next year is the year they make the playoffs… ok… next year? Well, I, along with many other football fans and analysts, have been claiming a Texan playoff run for the last few seasons. This is the year that I will not say that about the Texans, which means, of course, this is the year it will actually happens. So, then, I guess I am calling it then, which means, my predictions are knowingly wrong, but, no, I don’t think they will. Really, I don’t think they will. But maybe…” –
Season high point: The above high point as well as defeating the Colts in week 1.
Season low point: Earning a third of their wins in the first 2 weeks.

Jacksonville Jaguars
What I thought: 4 – 12, last in division
What they did: 8 – 8, second in division
What I said: “MJD can only do so much, and the star running back will have to play through, what I can only imagine being, another frustrating season.” – Garrard actually surprised people with his play, but it was indeed yet another frustrating season for Jones-Drew.
Season high point: The Hail Marry pass to defeat Houston.
Season low point: Playing their home games in Jacksonville.

-AW

Where It all Went Wrong: A look back to draft day.

Now that the fantasy football season has come to an end, I can think of no better way to wrap up another eventful year than to analyze where so many fantasy owners went wrong on draft day. I have arbitrarily decided to look at how someone with the seventh pick in a 10-team league could have won it and how he could have lost it. The players listed are guys who were probably available at the time of your pick and also would have been logical choices you could have conceivably made (so drafting Mike Vick with the first pick, Arian Foster with the second, and Peyton Hillis with your third round selection does not fit this bill). Here’s a look at the first 8 picks of the draft. I conclude this article with the all-undrafted team. Shockingly, 8 good free agent pickups could have transformed the mistake team into a first place contender.

First Pick:
The Mistake
The 7 spot was a pretty tough one to be in preseason. You’re basically unable to claim any of the truly elite running backs and there’s also a good chance that Andre Johnson, the unanimous preseason top WR, will be gone as well. Left with a decision between a second tier running back vs. an elite wide receiver or quarterback, you decide the following: (1) Talented running backs are prized in fantasy sports so you must have one. (2) The Rams are too bad to draft Steven Jackson. (3) Frank Gore has had health and fumbling issues. (4) If Norv Turner says Ryan Matthews will be getting over 250 carries his rookie year and considering the way LT played in San Diego his first season, you’re taking Ryan Matthews with the 7th pick in the draft.
Unfortunately for you, Matthew suffered from a midseason injury but even prior to that seemed to have a decreased value in the San Diego attack. He finished the fantasy season with only 558 yards rushing, 126 receiving, and 4 touchdowns. His BEST game of the year came in week 16 when he produced 55 yards rushing and a touchdown.

The “Shoulda”
Running backs are almost always overvalued in the preseason. Deciding to go with either Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers with the number 7 pick would have been the correct decision, as they finished the year as the top fantasy quarterbacks. Since this is an entirely hypothetical debate, however, the better decision of the 2 would have been Aaron Rodgers.

Second Pick:
The Mistake
Okay, so you already got a “stud” at running back so you can basically draft the best available player with this selection. This a three wide receiver league so if a top wide receiver is available that would be ideal. Well, whatdoyaknow, Brandon Marshall has fallen to you with this pick. Perfect. What’s not so perfect is that Marshall floundered in Miami, his new home, where he produced his fewest yards, receptions, and touchdown totals since his rookie season. That’s what a Chad Henne led attack will do to you.

The “Shoulda”
Roddy White produced the best season of his career in 2010 and one of the best for the position. The “Shoulda” team still doesn’t have a running back, so drafting Roddy with the second pick may make some people scratch their head, but a wise fantasy owner would realize that there is great value to be had in the next grouping of running backs with guys like Jamal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Arian Foster.

Pick 3:
The Mistake
It’s time to take a quarterback and with the 27th selection, you are probably left to decide between Tony Romo, Matt Schaub, and Phillip Rivers. You choose Romo on the basis that he will have Austin for a full year and rookie sensation Dez Bryant to boost his statistics. Schaub is inconsistent and Rives will be missing his favorite target, Vincent Jackson, for most of the season. This is a bad decision, in fact, it’s the worst one you have made in an otherwise terrible draft. Schaub and Rivers both produced top 15 seasons, but Rivers was truly the 3rd round gem of 2010. Owners who waited until this time to draft their quarterback feasted as Rivers threw for nearly 4400 yards through 15 games to go along with 30 touchdowns. Meanwhile, Romo suffered a season-ending injury in week 6.

The “Shoulda”
Alright, there is no way you can delay drafting a running back any longer. LeSean McCoy is your decision at this point in the draft. For years, Brian Westbrook thrived in Andy Reid’s offense. Kolb is going to be looking for safe options in his first season as a starting quarterback, which means lots of receptions for McCoy. He produced nearly 1,000 all-purpose yards his rookie season and now with an unquestioned starting role, those numbers will show drastic improvement.

Pick 4:
The Mistake
You remember all the good times Steve Smith enjoyed in Carolina a few years back when he led the league in all major receiving categories. You think that the quarterback situation is adequate enough for him to revitalize his slowing career. You know that once Smith gets the ball in his hands he is one of the most dangerous players in the league. However, you are completely wrong and downright stupid for picking someone as hopeless as Smith. You are rewarded for this decision with 554 yards and 2 touchdowns (neither of which came after week 2).

The “Shoulda”
Round 4 is what separates your team from everyone else in the league. It is now that you make one of the best draft picks to be made over the last 5 years. You take your second running back, Arian Foster with this pick. Foster will go on to be the best fantasy player of the season, with nearly 2,000 all purpose yards through 15 games, 16 total touchdowns, and an added bonus of 44 receptions. Foster has unmatched consistency at the position and failed to produce either 60 all purpose yards or a score on only 1 occasion.

Pick 5:
The Mistake
Time for another running back. You believe Marion Barber is the perfect choice as he is the goal line threat and exciting to watch. Yeah, there’s a guy named Felix Jones but Barber has been able to thrive in multi-running back situations before. By the time Barber suffered an injury in week 13 he is probably no longer on your team after a start that can be only described as tragic.

The “Shoulda”
The Kansas City Chiefs might be this season’s biggest surprise and wide out, Dwayne Bowe, was instrumental in their performance. Bowe led the NFL in receiving touchdowns this season with 15. During one stretch Bowe scored an incredible 13 touchdowns over 7 games. It is safe to say Bowe would have been a terrific round 5 pick.

Pick 6:
The Mistake
Last season, Mike Sims-Walker produced 869 yards and 7 touchdowns but judging by his pre-draft hype, you’d think those numbers would have been better. He’s a young talent on a run first team, but you like his potential so use your sixth pick on the Jacksonville wide out. His 2010 production is worse than that of 09.

The “Shoulda”
Drafting a tight end this early is sometimes a bad decision. There are very few players who actually perform at round 6 caliber every season, but once somebody drafts Antonio Gates and Vernon Davis, the floodgates are open for mediocre players to be selected well before their due date. With the sixth pick, you elect to draft Jason Witten, someone who typically performs around the level of Gates and Davis. Lucky for you, Witten goes on to lead all tight ends in receptions, receiving yards, and finishes third with 8 touchdowns.

Pick 7:
The Mistake
When healthy, there may not be a player more dangerous than Reggie Bush. Unfortunately, he is rarely healthy. You disregard this dubious trend and select Reggie Bush with your 7th pick. If the Marion Barber thing doesn’t work out well, Bush should be a nice backup, or so you think.

The “Shoulda”
Needing a third wide receiver, you turn towards Pittsburg deep threat, Mike Wallace, who posted career best numbers in all three receiving categories. He also improved his already NFL best average yards/reception of 19.4 yards to 20.2.

Pick 8:
The Mistake
Now needing only a tight end, you decide to draft Brent Celek. There was a mini run on the position earlier in the draft, but you elected to hold off and select someone who you thought was a small step behind the elites. Celek turns out to be mediocre, catching 42 passes for 511 yards and 4 touchdowns.

The “Shoulda”
It might be a bit early to draft a backup quarterback, but you look at the talent pool in front of you and decide that the best long-term bet would be to draft Matt Ryan. He’s shown moments of greatness in his first 2 NFL seasons and may provide you with some great trade options. Plus, you have Roddy White on your team as well and there’s nothing greater than having a productive QB-WR combination.

So here’s a final wrap up for the season.

Mistake Team:
QB: Tony Romo
WR: Brandon Marshall
WR: Steve Smith (CAR)
WR: Mike Sims Walker
RB: Ryan Matthew
RB: Marion Barber
TE: Brent Celek
Bench: Reggie Bush

Shoulda Team:
QB: Aaron Rodgers
WR: Roddy White
WR: Dwayne Bowe
WR: Mike Wallace
RB: LeSean McCoy
RB: Arian Foster
TE: Jason Witten
Bench: Matt Ryan

Undrafted Team:
QB: Mike Vick
WR: Brandon Lloyd
WR: Stevie Johnson
WR: Mike Williams (TB)
RB: Peyton Hillis
RB: BenJarvus Green-Ellis
TE: Rob Gronkowski
Bench: Mike Tolbert

-AW

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